COUNTY SOVEREIGNTY No. 1 1996 January 1 Frank Forman, editor forman@netcom.com Welcome to a new e-zine! This first issue is made up of an essay by myself. Future issues will report on the county sovereignty movement in the American West, where sheriffs have been telling federal officials to stay out unless they have permission. Counties have also been asserting ownership of land controlled by the federal government. This issue is being posted to a number of UseNet groups, e-mail lists, and individuals. All of us are interested in politics and the future, so I have hit quite a number of lists to get as wide a variety of responses as possible. These include not only overtly political groups, but those made up of philosophers, futurists, lawyers, and students of culture. If you are reading this from one of the UseNet groups, when you reply, please tell us what group you are posting from. Should you choose to trim the list of groups, please leave in alt.philosophy.objectivism, since that is the one I read most regularly. There is nothing in philosophy or political theory that says governments have to be of any specific size. They only say what governments *should* do, not how big they ought to be. And I am going to refrain from telling the world what I, personally, want it to be like. I have been receiving several documents and newspaper articles relating to these developments and will be reposting several of them in future issues. I encourage your e- mailing them to me. But we do have to take care not to violate copyrights. I will be writing to various newspapers and ask for permission to repost. I think I will get a number of such permissions, since reposting will help give publicity and gain subscriptions for small county-wide papers. And I encourage everyone to send these papers information you have. Of course, the news covered in any newspaper article is not itself copyrightable, but I would prefer to just repost, since it saves me work and the way the reporter covered his subject is itself newsworthy. We should do what we can to make the locals everywhere know what is going on in other localities. In the future, I will compile a list of resources on this topic. In the meantime, I hope this first issue provokes rethinking. WHY GOVERNMENTS WILL DEVOLVE by Frank Forman 1996 January 1 I predict a great devolution of political authority in the United States during the next few decades. We tend to overestimate change in the short run--so I won't say much about the next decade--but we underpredict in the long run: Herman Kahn, the leading futurologist of his day got many things right, but he failed to predict in 1970 for the year 2000 the rise of the personal computer, the collapse of communism, the spread of cynicism about government, or--he weighed more than 300 pounds- -the fitness revolution. I don't make my prediction of devolution on the basis of what I, personally, would like things to be like. Rather, I base it on the rapidly declining cost of information. This major change in technology will result in the devolution of political authority, no matter who wants it or not. Devolution could go down all the way to the county level. I will discuss the County Sovereignty ideal at the end of this article. A. WHY THERE ARE BUREAUCRACIES First, a question: Why don't engineers run General Motors? They have the greatest knowledge of cars, not the accountants and lawyers, who with all the other bureaucrats, add nothing but congestion and delay. Or so it would seem. Indeed, the first automobile manufacturers were engineers, mechanics, tinkerers. If engineers were to decide what kinds of cars would be made today, we would have absolutely first-rate cars, wonderfully designed, but they would be extremely expensive and would not appeal to ordinary buyers. General Motors would go broke. In the early days of cars, this natural bias of engineers did not matter. Only the well-to-do bought cars, and the early tinkerers would make only a few specimens and probably would know most of the buyers personally. Their engineering problems were to get the car moving, not to make fancy refinements. One early designer discovered that his car worked just fine out in the country but that it came to a halt in the city. The reason was that country roads were very rough and shook up the gasoline so as to mix it with air, making for a very primitive carburetor. On smoother roads in cities, there was too much gasoline in the mix; so the car stopped. Mechanics did manage to solve this particular problem, but without knowing why. The principles of carburetion were yet to come. In the car business today, no one down the line can know more than a piece of the total picture. Besides engineers, there have to be marketing specialists (to know whether a design change will sell), buyers (to scout for the cheapest sources of supply), accountants (to keep track of costs and profits, which can be quite a tricky job), lawyers (as much to counteract other lawyers as anything else), lobbyists (no need to explain this), and a good many other types of specialists as well. None of these divisions of the automobile company can get the whole picture. What they do is forward their own insights to management, which then decides what to do and issues directions back down. So far, so good, and a generally satisfying answer to why a hierarchical structure exists in large organizations. Bureaucracies exist because information is limited. The *depth* of the bureaucracy depends on the industry in question, how mature it is, and what the cost of information is. Change any factor in the equation and you change the result. What Herman Kahn, and practically everybody else, did not predict was that information was going to get much, much cheaper. Today, engineers do not have to make blueprints (remember those?), send them up the chain of command, get their message distorted at every link in the chain, and wait for management to make a decision they may well think is ill- advised. Or at least not nearly so much as in the past. Today, engineers can get the accountants' spread sheets on their own computer screens and get other information from the marketing department, the legal department, and what not. And the accountants can look at not just a handful of awkward blueprints but a complex array of handsome graphics. Management is still necessary, but there will be much less of it, as well as much more crosstalk among the separate departments. This is all because of the declining cost of information. Corporations around the world are "delayering" by thinning out ranks of middle managers. Not only are payroll costs saved, but often the total output, even though from a reduced staff, increases. Of course, those in middle-management positions do not want their jobs eliminated, and they no doubt convince themselves that the difference between their in-boxes and their out-boxes contributes to the overall profitability of their companies. But they are increasingly unsuccessful convincing their superiors of this. Even if they are successful, businesses that carry an excess burden of middle managers suffer losses and shrink in size. Leaner organizations grow, with the result that more and more organizations are lean. This process, like many others, works even if no one consciously appreciates what is going on. It is an example of what the great economist, Adam Smith, called the Invisible Hand in _The Wealth of Nations_ in 1776. This profit-and-loss mechanism does not work perfectly, and dinosaur companies can linger on for an awfully long time. But it works faster than political processes, which are constrained by elections, not profits, since governments have the ability to tax. But so long as there is *some* feedback from the governed to the governors, there will be some brakes upon the expansion of middle managers and bureaucrats. The governed will perceive too many managers and not enough output and, in a system that allows for elections, will vote in politicians who will reduce unnecessary layers of bureaucrats. As businesses downsize, the perception of too many bureaucrats will become all the more real. Voters will demand a reduction of bureaucracy. B. THE FEDERAL FORM OF GOVERNMENT The system of governance in the United States is a federal one, with certain functions assigned to the top level (called somewhat confusingly "federal" itself), others to states, counties, and towns, and still others to school districts and other bodies that deal with specific issues such as sewage disposal. All in all, there are about 3200 counties in the U.S., some 16,000 school districts, and I don't know how many other local governing bodies. Most of the world's nations do not have a federal form of government; rather, they have local administration of national laws. In other countries, the ultimate authority resides at the top level, and local elections are held to decide who is to administer the law, much more than to make the law. The information revolution implies a delayering of government bureaucracy as well as corporate bureaucracy (or so I have been arguing), which is what Vice President Algore has been attempting, with very little success, with his program to "Reinvent Government." What can also be done is to move decisions about what activities to carry out away from the central government to the states and localities. This is what is called devolution. Businesses also can devolve, which is what franchising is often about, esp. when a local franchise operation makes most of the decisions about what to market, subject only to general standards set by corporate headquarters. Indeed, franchising has been a growth industry for some decades, while the general trend of government in this country has been to centralize. [I shall prepare tables showing federal vs. state and local financing of various forms of government activity, now and in the past, for later versions of this essay. Federal spending is 62 percent of total government spending. I am not sure whether this figure includes grants from the federal government to states and localities.] A crucial difference between government and business, however, is the ability of governments to monopolize their products and to tax. These powers can be viewed as wholly coercive or as resting on the consent of the governed or as any mixture in between. Brute force alone is rarely effective in securing obedience, which is why governments have always promoted ideologies (which are, in many respects, updated versions of religions) that gain them a large measure of consent. Before the nature of capitalism was understood, there was no other way known to organize large-scale public works projects (like irrigation), and to this day national defense is almost universally regarded as a necessary central government activity. We should pause before condemning our forebears, who may very well have done the best they could, given their understanding of how things work. Nevertheless, governments could and did go beyond providing protection and public works and became exploitative. Justificatory ideologies became all the more important. But there are limits on the power of ideologies, as well as on that of brute force, and this means that there is a feedback from the governed to the governors. Revolution was one primary means of reform, just plain disobedience another. Today we hold elections and we Americans have one of the highest rates of tax compliance in the world. I would say that our general level of consent is fairly high, by historical standards, despite all the complaining. It would seem that there are *no* conservatives (those who want to preserve the status quo), *except* our elected representatives, who want to change things at most 5-10 percent! This should perhaps not be surprising, since democratic government is *supposed* to result in a compromise between those who want more and those who want less. If the man in the middle (the "median voter") is made happy, then the aggregate unhappiness of all the voters is minimized. But only very few voters will be close to the exact center, meaning that only very few will be conservatives, in the sense of wanting to conserve the status quo. All this said, no institution, not even democracy, works exactly as it is supposed to. It is not the man in the middle of the whole electorate that is satisfied but rather the middle of all the organized pressure groups. What can be done to alleviate this problem is to redesign the institution, by way of amending the constitution or enforcing certain provisions that have been allowed to elapse. What can also be done is for inactive members of the electorate to become active, sometimes by voting, other times by forming new pressure groups. C. TECHNOLOGY AND PRESSURE GROUPS Here are my general opinions on how changes in technology have gotten us into a situation where the man in the middle is far from the middle of the pressure groups, and how newer technology is getting us out. I have, no one has, exact statistics on these subjects, but hear me out anyhow. Our Constitution of 1789 was designed by the existing state legislatures to both grant the federal government certain powers and to prohibit it from having others. (There are a few things prohibited to the states also.) Specifically, legislation was made difficult to enact: majorities of two houses of Congress, elected by very different principles (by popular vote in the case of a House with members apportioned by population, but by the state legislatures in the case of a Senate with two members from each state), were required, as well as the President's signature (the lack of which could be overridden by two-thirds majorities in each house). This is *not* simple (direct) democracy, which would require fifty percent approval only of one house (the one elected directly by voters, and no funny business of having electoral districts of unequal population). Furthermore, simple democracy would be unlimited as to the *scope* of government, unlike the Constitution of 1789, which granted only eighteen specific powers. And this is just as well, for simple democracy would allow for coalition building, with the result that minorities get what they want out of the political process by means of logrolling with one another. Raising the requirement for making laws *above* fifty percent (or by requiring simple majorities in two houses of the legislature) would redress the imbalance and, if done properly, result in an approximation to a theoretical democracy *without* the pressure groups and logrolling. (That there are certain inalienable rights, meaning ones that cannot be alienated--handed over--to any government, is the subject of the *scope* of government.) Now, looking back, we may very well think that our Founding Fathers did a remarkably good job in designing a government that would foster legislation useful to the populace yet constrain legislation that rewarded only what they called "factions" and what we today call pressure groups or special interest groups. Of course, at the time, quite a number of men (known as the Anti-Federalists) thought the proposed Constitution gave far too many powers to the central government, and it turns out that only six signers of the Declaration of Independence would consent to sign the Constitution. But even supposing that the Constitution of 1789 was ideal for its day, the technology of forming pressure groups has changed, and in the direction of making it cheaper to form them. This is because communication of all sorts has gotten cheaper. The result has been as if only one-third (just an estimate) of each house in Congress were required in earlier times to enact legislation. Communication also got monopolized to a fairly large extent. This has promoted the propagation of ideology, which, like religions did in earlier civilizations, increases the sense of consensus for the political powers that be. In particular, the number of radio and teevee stations is sharply limited by the Federal Communications Commission, and that other conduit of ideology, education, is mostly in the hands of government and its legitimizers. This ideology is sometimes referred to as liberalism, other times as secular humanism, but may best be characterized as top-down management, whether in corporate or federal government bureaucracies. By contrast, the "right wing" in this country, made up of low-taxers, isolationists, Christian fundamentalists, libertarians, inegalitarians, etc., has little in common except a general dislike of what _The Managerial Revolution_ (to cite the title of James Burnham's profound 1941 book) has brought about. However, as the costs of communication have dropped even further, this dominant ideology of liberal managerialism no longer has the hegemony it once did. The breakdown began with teevee evangelists, mass mailings of "right-wing" political candidates, and Citizens' Band radio and continued with talk radio, which has a right-left ratio of about three to one. The most recent innovation, the UseNet discussion groups, is about ten to one. The dangers of free discussion have gotten to the point where the new neo-conservative magazine, _The Weekly Standard_, had its cover story on its fourth issue, "SMASH THE INTERNET!" (The cover story a few issues later was a slam at devolution and picked Alexandria, VA, as a supposedly typical city government, as though a government located in the heart of the Washington, D.C., area could possibly be typical. Neo-conservatives differ from liberals, not in desiring less central control, but in the purposes to which they want to put it, namely more in the direction of the warfare state than the welfare state. They differ also in the sorts of virtues they would like to impose from the top.) D. THE COLLAPSE OF THE MANAGERIAL IDEOLOGY What talk radio and the Internet have done is haul up the ideology of central management for critical questioning and thereby reduce its legitimacy. They have also publicized the failures of the managed society. It is a recurrent theme in history that what begins as what Carroll Quigley (in _The Evolution of Civilizations_ (1961)) calls an "instrument" for expansion that benefits everyone often turns into an "institution" that leaves the original purpose behind. Quigley cites football as an excellent example: what started out as a way to get undergraduates to exercise has wound up with those in least need of exercise out on the field, and those in greatest need sitting in the bleachers. At its worst, overextension of an institution serves only an elite group of exploiters. This can happen even when the underlying technology remains the same. Indeed, it is the thesis of Joseph A. Tainter's _The Collapse of Complex Societies_ (1988) that further and further extension of a polity into more and more marginal areas eventually leads to a collapse of its authority. What we have today is 1) overextension of the top-down managerial ethic, 2) publicity about the failures of that overextension through ever cheaper ways of communicating that failure, 3) an underlying change in technology that implies that, even without overextension, the optimal amount of centralization of both businesses and governments is far less than what would have been optimal in the past, and 4) a general delegitimizing of some aspects of the ideology that has gone to justify the central state. This last factor requires some amplification. There were actually two, somewhat conflicting, pre-managerial capitalist ethics in this country. One was the ethics of frugality as espoused by Benjamin Franklin's Poor Richard. It advocated steady, patient application of effort and prudent saving. This ethic was indeed functional at a time when farming was the predominant occupation. Later in the heyday of the "robber barons," a far more risk-taking, entrepreneurial ethic replaced it. Both ethics, however, emphasized such virtues as honesty and hard work. The ethic that came with managerial capitalism reversed the trend toward risk-taking. The motto in a bureaucracy is follow the rules, cover your ass, don't take risks, don't be too independent. Indeed, this ethic (if not exaggerated) is functional for success in large organizations. (Tomorrow's ethic will revert to emphasizing risk taking, since creativity in flattened organizations will be in demand and jobs will not be nearly so secure.) What went along with the managed society, esp. in government, was the general feeling that everything could ultimately be brought under management. This gave rise to central planning, if not in its full-blown form of socialism, at least in the idea of Keynesian macro-economic management of the business cycle and the reduction of unemployment under the general rubric of "fine tuning" the economy. But what also came along was the whole environmentalist ideology that differences in people's fortunes were due to differences in their upbringing, which differences could be solved through better schools and home environments, all of which would need to be planned. Those who resisted such planning were branded as authoritarian and even antisemitic, esp. in the famous study by Theodore Adorno, et alia, _The Authoritarian Personality_ (1950). Those resisting suffered from psychological disorders, which could be cured by what has come to be known as the "therapeutic state." [There is one aspect of the whole managerial mindset that I have never been able to fit into any general picture. This is why the current and doomed elite emphasizes short-term gratification and hedonism as opposed to the traditional ethic of hard work. Certainly, businessmen would like to sell their products and might indeed want to foster short-run consumerism, but they also need diligent employees. Politicians also should be favoring cultivation of the virtues that make for economic expansion. As far as I can tell, what happened was that the rising managerial elite simply wanted to undermine and weaken *everything* in the old order of entrepreneurial capitalism and wound up attacking too much.] Education, another thing that could be managed, was seen, even before mass psychiatry, as a key part of the managerial society. That mental problems have chemical or biological roots was heretical until miracle drugs forced the issue. And today the notion that some individual school children are just dumb for genetic reasons is still nearly taboo, while the notion that some groups might have differences in average potential is completely taboo. As for bad students being themselves to blame for not applying themselves to their lessons, this is only partly recognized in elite discourse, the partial recognition coming from the prospect of having credentialed psychiatric social workers take over from families and manipulate the poorly performing children according to their expert lights, with accompanying employment offers to planners of all sorts. For some decades now, only half of the staff in the public schools are actually classroom teachers, while in colleges and universities, professors make up only one-third of the staff. E. PROSPECTS I seem to have gotten into the complaining mode, while I started out just arguing the general case that the rapidly declining cost of information warrants devolution of government. This would be the case, even if there were nothing to complain about in the way of overextension of the scope of government and runaway bureaucracy. It is just that, where there is such overextension, if the information costs of raising a ruckus are low enough, the ruckus will be raised. This is exactly what we are seeing. Back to the beginning, which was about predicting the future regards devolution of government. As I said, we overestimate short-run change and underestimate long-run change. So we should not expect a *sudden* devolution of government. But pressures can build up so that a major change long in the making does happen suddenly. The collapse of communism is the handiest example. A sudden new technology can work sudden results, also. The prospect of cyber-cash, where transactions can be made outside the all-seeing eye of the tax collector, could well mean the end of the federal government. I noted earlier that tax collection is comparatively high in the United States, but I am not sure how much this is a matter of the taxpayers feeling that the federal government is worthy of their support and how much it is due to the efficiency of the Internal Revenue Service. Economists have tried a number of ways to estimate the size of the underground economy, and their methods converge to about ten percent of GDP (lower than in many other countries). Payments for personal services can be paid in cash, and so can payments for goods at small businesses (including those for drugs), though there are certain risks of IRS spying. But larger transactions generally either go through banks or else you *want* the transaction to go through a bank (or otherwise be recorded), so you can write them off your taxes. If banks go underground, as has been the case with the Tong gangs in Chinatown in New York City, then the IRS is in big trouble. But *you* are in trouble if the bank absconds with your money! (The Tong gangs have their ways of dealing with such things.) How things will work out in the balance, and whether the Feds will set up draconian regulations and even a police state to get their money, cannot be predicted. This did not stop the cyber guru John Perry Barlow from saying that paying taxes would be involuntary within six months. (He made this statement about five months ago.) But there is a distinct possibility of a quite sudden collapse, not the collapses that took place over one to five *hundred* years in the civilizations whose collapse Joseph Tainter described. There *was* the possibility of the new Republican majorities in both houses of Congress starting a revolution during the First Hundred Days that would steamroller on and on. This did not happen, and we shall have to wait for the Congressional elections in the Fall to see whether the newest batch of freshmen is more radical than the current one. Then the steamroller might resume. All this depends on the assumption that elite opinion is wildly out of synch with popular opinion. This was certainly the case in the ex- communist countries, and this allowed for a sudden catching up to take place. No such presumption of a gap of this magnitude can be made for this country, however much it may appear to be the case among the most vocal complainers. The reason is that almost everybody has bought into the egalitarian ideology that legitimizes the managerial society. True enough, top-down management is no longer seen by a majority as a solution to problems, but most of the current programs at the federal, and even the state, level will continue as long as they ostensibly support egalitarian and redistributivist ideals that almost everyone accepts in some degree or another. In fact, as Gordon Tullock argued in _The Economics of Income Redistribution_ (1983), only about five percent of government spending in fact goes to take money from the rich and give it to the poor, the *same* percentage as a hundred years ago. There is more total redistribution, but only because government is larger. Most of the redistribution, such as Social Security, goes to groups whose merit is an ability to get organized, not to groups whose merit is being poor. More importantly, no one is eager to go first when it comes to reforming government, and many of those on the receiving end fear that the states would not give them as much as they are getting from the federal government. The reason for this fear is that taxpayers would move from high to low taxing states, while taxeaters would move from low-paying to high-paying states. This process used to be somewhat dampened, for states could impose a residency requirement on welfare recipients until the Supreme Court made it illegal about twenty years ago. Actually, net transfer from the federal governments to the states is extremely slight. That elite opinion can talk about a "race to the bottom" as states would scramble to lower transfers to the poor shows how entrenched managerial/egalitarian ideology is. The implication is that the amount of transferring done by the state that does the most transferring is doing the *correct* amount, not the state that does the least. Back to predictions: I predict that, well within the next fifty years, egalitarian and managerial ideologies will have largely crumbled. But, given that taxeaters have the vote, I do not predict that the transfer functions of the federal government will have disappeared, but simply greatly reduced in scope. What I can say- -no one I have discussed this with disagrees with me--is that if Washington, D.C., were nuked and did not get up and going within six months, people would have gotten so used to doing things without central permission that the federal government would not get reconstituted. But barring this, or a cyber-cash revolution, a good deal of federal activity will continue. Not all of this is bad by any means, and my test is whether the activity would have arisen again from the bottom under a system of county sovereignty. I do not predict that county sovereignty will become a fact, but I would not be surprised to see it espoused as an ideal, now shared by only a small minority that employs a construction of the Articles of Confederation, which they regard as the true binding and operative document in our country. I close with a statement of the county sovereignty ideal. F. COUNTY SOVEREIGNTY Counties, often described as no larger than a horse-and-buggy's day drive from the county seat, will be the basic unit of sovereign government. Counties can pass pretty much any laws they choose, with respect to the establishment of religion or public education, the level of taxes, the activities regarded as crimes, the regulations governing occupations, pollution, and marriages, the sorts of public libraries and parks to be provided by the taxpayers, immigration policies, etc. The counties can, and often should, pass their authority down to still lower levels of jurisdiction (towns, school districts, etc.), but these lower units will not be sovereign. Counties can certainly cooperate with one another, and of course they will, from such elementary things as making sure roads connect at county boundaries and on up to coordinating contract and tort law. The counties may, and will, empower governments at the state level to do these various jobs of coordination, but the states will not be granted the power to tax. At the next higher level, states can cooperate with each other and empower a federal government, but it, too will have no power to tax. And nations can cooperate with one another, too, as they do through several dozen international bodies, the United Nations among them. The U.N., contrary to what many right-wingers assume, does useful things, such as coordinating air traffic throughout the world. (Did you know that air traffic controllers all speak English?) But the U.N. has no power to tax (neither did the central government under the Articles of Confederation) and can only do what the member nations allow it to do. I predict that levels of government above that of the county will continue to do useful things, even if we were to start all over again: *Patents and copyrights (here at the national and even the international level). *Settling boundary disputes and disputes among inhabitants of different jurisdictions. *General collection of statistics and scientific information (weather maps, even if they might as well be privatized). I have never seen a study showing government incompetence in such matters to be anywhere nearly so great as in other areas. *Promulgation of standards of such things as weights and measures. *Subsidy of research that benefits people across jurisdictions and even nations. *Agreements on how to deal with problems that extend over large geographic areas, such as *some* forms of pollution and the depletion of ocean reserves. But, as Gordon Tullock has argued in _The New Federalist_ (1994), very few of what are called "externalities" extend beyond a county or a neighboring county. No economist, as far as I know, has ever made a thorough study of the matter. *But probably NOT regulating money, which may be made obsolete even on a John Perry Barlow time scale by brokerage houses that offer to store money in a fluctuating mix of national currencies. (Just because something is obsolete, I hasten to add, does not mean it will go away.) I would not be surprised if the banking world converged on a single, global currency and suspect the reason why national currencies exist is so that governments can raise revenues through that disguised form of taxation known as inflation. *But probably NOT much in the way of the military. It is world trade that brings world peace, esp. when capitalists of all countries own property in all other countries. They do not want their properties seized and will use their clout to prevent wars. Besides, if the county were the sovereign entity and some other nation decided to invade this country (for the first time since 1812), WHO would he go after? And in a country where the citizens are already armed to the teeth, how could it possibly defeat the militias? Indeed, we could do worse that to give Russian capitalists pieces of our national parks instead of feeding the defense contractors. What *will* happen is that governments at the county level will furiously compete with one another and become far more efficient at providing services. They will also give the locals far closer to what *they* want than can be done at higher levels. As to the question of whether cyber-cash will do in government at even the county level, the answer is no: property is still there to be taxed and cannot be whisked off to cyberspace. However far devolution goes, county sovereignty should become an ideal or benchmark against which to compare reality.