Danny's Weblog

2004 Jan 09 [ Fri ]

Recent suspected SARS cases in Asia

The recent cases more or less correspond to my expectation: ie, SARS is now observed in a mutated form, corresponding to the standard mutability of the common cold, another coronavirus.

In contrast to my earlier doominess, I have to say that the news coming out of China makes me feel much more optimistic than I did. The reason SARS was able to take hold last flu season was because the Chicoms actively attempted to suppress news about it. (It's funny, this year news reports are casually referring to that whereas last year they pussy-footed around the issue.)

My impression is that the infectivity of SARS is actually not all that high. Very probably previous models of SARS have surfaced in the human population on numerous previous occasions but died out naturally at a level below observation. (Hmmm... I wonder *how many times already* the Chicoms suppressed a SARS epidemic? Or *other* epidemics?) On the other hand it was amusing to hear a WHO spokeswoman on TV today admitting that "our best weapon is screening and contact tracking" (not an exact quote) – what she was trying to avoid saying is "we still have no vaccine or any other effective treatment".

This low infectivity combined with aggressive countermeasures by the Chicoms will quite possibly prevent a major deathtoll or breakout of SARS into other vulnerable populations, eg India or Indonesia.

[Single-story view] [/Health/SARS] [permanent link]
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