> Tom, at least look at the research I've done on manipulation before you > reject it: > http://hanson.gmu.edu/biashelp.pdf > http://hanson.gmu.edu/biastest.pdf Robin, thanks for the reply and the links. I have actually already read some research you have done on manipulation, specifically foulplay.pdf "Foul Play in information markets". I will also read the two papers you URL'ed above. While foulplay was fascinating, it didn't seem to rule out the sort of manipulation scenario I have in mind. According to my notes on foulplay, the ideas are fascinating but I felt the arguments were not airtight. I notice you replied via email. I'm not certain whether you are signalling that you prefer an email discussion, or that you feel it is off-topic for overcomingbias, or something else. I was hoping for a little input from the other sharp minds on overcomingbias. But as it takes two to tango, it is your call whether to proceed privately or publicly. Tom