{"id":175573,"date":"2021-01-18T07:48:00","date_gmt":"2021-01-18T12:48:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2021\/01\/18\/this-may-be-the-worst-idea-in-economics\/"},"modified":"2021-01-18T07:48:00","modified_gmt":"2021-01-18T12:48:00","slug":"this-may-be-the-worst-idea-in-economics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2021\/01\/18\/this-may-be-the-worst-idea-in-economics\/","title":{"rendered":"This May be the Worst Idea in Economics"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>  There is a lot not to like about Economics. <\/p>\n<p>  It seems that most streams of economics appear to be a means for justifying   the existing power structure, with the benefit being that economists are given   (relatively) high positions within that power structures. <\/p>\n<p>  Political economist Blair Fix makes a good argument that   <a href=\"https:\/\/economicsfromthetopdown.com\/2021\/01\/14\/the-rise-of-human-capital-theory\/amp\/\">modern Human Capital Theory<\/a>, which resembles a toxic mix of Social Darwinism, and emerged largely from   the University of Chicago. <\/p>\n<p>  The short version, to use Ayn Rand pulp fiction (and pulpier philosophy) as an   example, the investor who pays scientists to create &#8220;Reardon Metal&#8221; is   responsible for all the value derived from this wondrous material.<\/p>\n<p>  The scientist who creates this material adds no value, neither does the army   of workers who labor to manufacture this material and forge it into shape. <\/p>\n<p>  If this sounds non-sensical, note how this is identical to the justification   for paying obscene remuneration to founders and CEOs. <\/p>\n<p>The little people just don&#8217;t mater:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>  <span style=\"color: #2b00fe;\">If there was an award for the most pernicious scientific idea ever, what     theory should get first prize? I would vote for     <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Eugenics\">eugenics<\/a>, a theory that     claims we can \u2018improve\u2019 humanity through selective breeding. <\/p>\n<p>If     there was a second prize, I\u2019d give it to human capital theory. I think of     human capital theory as \u2018eugenics light\u2019. It purges the idea that abilities     are innate (and that we should selectively breed the \u2018fit\u2019). But human     capital theory keeps the Nietzschean idea that humanity\u2019s success can be     attributed mostly to gifted     <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/%C3%9Cbermensch\">\u00fcbermensch<\/a>.     <\/p>\n<p>Among us, human capital theory claims, walk individuals who are     unfathomably productive. These \u00fcbermensch produce more in an hour than most     of us do in a week. Take just 1% of these top individuals, and you\u2019ll find     that they outproduce the bottom half of society!<a href=\"https:\/\/economicsfromthetopdown.com\/2021\/01\/14\/the-rise-of-human-capital-theory\/amp\/#fn1\"><sup>1<\/sup><\/a>    According to human capital theory, then, we could do away with half of     society with no great loss to economic output. Of course, few human-capital     theorists advocate such atrocities. But my point is that their theory     contains the seeds of eugenics \u2026 even Nazism. <\/p>\n<p>The ethical     problems with eugenics and human capital theory are easy to spot. But what     about the scientific problems? These are more difficult to tease out.     Eugenics is based on the hard truth that many traits are heritable.     Similarly, human capital theory is based on the reality that some people     earn hundreds of times more income than others. Where both theories go     wrong, however, is that they misunderstand humanity\u2019s social nature.     <\/p>\n<p>Yes, many individual traits are heritable. But it is a fallacy     that traits that are good for individuals are also good for society. That\u2019s     the core scientific flaw in eugenics. And yes, it\u2019s true that some people     earn far more than others. But it\u2019s a fallacy that this income is caused by     traits of the individual. In reality, income is a social trait.     <\/p>\n<p>My goal in this post is not to rigorously debunk human capital     theory. (I\u2019ve done that     <a href=\"http:\/\/bnarchives.yorku.ca\/568\/2\/20181200_fix_the_trouble_with_human_capital_theory_rwer.pdf\">here<\/a>.) Instead, I\u2019m going to chart its rise and speculate about its eventual     fall. I\u2019ll do so by looking at the rise and fall of eugenics. What\u2019s ominous     is that the theory that debunks eugenics is today still more obscure than     eugenics itself. In a century, will something similar hold for the theory     that debunks the idea of human capital?<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>He then compares this to experiments in animal and human eugenics:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>  <span style=\"color: #2b00fe;\"><span>In the 1990s, geneticist William Muir conducted experiments on chickens       to see what would improve egg-laying productivity. In one trial, he did       exactly what the eugenicists recommend \u2014 he let only the most productive       hens reproduce. The results were disastrous. Egg-laying productivity       didn\u2019t increase. It <i>plummeted<\/i>. Why? Because the resulting breed of       hens was psychopathic. Instead of producing eggs, these \u2018uber-hens\u2019 fought       amongst themselves, sometimes to the death.     <\/span><\/span>  <\/p>\n<p>    <span style=\"color: #2b00fe;\"><span>        The reason this experiment didn\u2019t work is that egg-laying productivity         is not an isolated property of the individual hen. It is a joint         property of the hen and her social environment. In Muir\u2019s experiment,         the most productive hens laid more eggs not because they were innately         more productive, but because they <i>suppressed<\/i> the productivity of         less dominant chickens. By selecting for individual productivity, Muir         had inadvertently bred for social dominance. The result was a breed of         bully chicken that couldn\u2019t tolerate others.       <\/span><\/span>  <\/p>\n<p>  <span style=\"color: #2b00fe;\"><span> <\/span><\/span>  <\/p>\n<p>    <span style=\"color: #2b00fe;\"><span>        The lesson here is that in social animals, traits that can be         <i>measured<\/i> among individuals (like productivity) may not actually         be traits <i>of<\/i> the individual. Instead, they are joint traits of         both the individual and their social environment. Here\u2019s evolutionary         biologist David Sloan Wilson reflecting on this fact:       <\/span><\/span>  <\/p>\n<p>  <span style=\"color: #2b00fe;\"><span> <\/span><\/span>  <\/p>\n<blockquote><p>    <span style=\"color: #2b00fe;\"><span> <\/span><\/span>    <\/p>\n<p>      <span style=\"color: #2b00fe;\"><span>          Muir\u2019s experiments \u2026 challenge what it means for a trait to be           regarded as an individual trait. If by \u201cindividual trait\u201d we mean a           trait that can be measured in an individual, then egg productivity in           hens qualifies. You just count the number of eggs that emerge from the           hind end of a hen. If by \u201cindividual trait\u201d we mean the process that           resulted in the trait, then egg productivity in hens does not qualify.           Instead, it is a social trait that depends not only on the properties           of the individual hen but also on the properties of the hen\u2019s social           environment.         <\/span><\/span>    <\/p>\n<p>    <span style=\"color: #2b00fe;\"><span> <\/span><\/span>    <\/p>\n<blockquote><p>      <span style=\"color: #2b00fe;\"><span>          \u2014(David Sloan Wilson in           <a href=\"https:\/\/thisviewoflife.com\/when-the-strong-outbreed-the-weak-an-interview-with-william-muir\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">When the Strong Outbreed the Weak<\/a>)         <\/span><\/span>    <\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>  <span style=\"color: #2b00fe;\">A key problem with eugenics is that it neglects the social nature of human     traits. It assumes that productivity is an innate trait of the individual,     and that breeding for this trait would lead to a better society. It\u2019s a     seductive idea that is deeply flawed. In all likelihood, selectively     breeding people for productivity would, like chickens, lead to a     psychopathic strain of human.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>  This sounds a lot like the sociopaths who are in the top 1% of the 1%, doesn&#8217;t   it?&nbsp; <\/p>\n<p>  Jamie Dimon seems to be the apotheosis of such a process. doesn&#8217;t he?<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>  <span style=\"color: #2b00fe;\">The ground work for human capital theory was laid just as eugenics fell out     of favor. In the 1950s, economists at the University of Chicago tackled the     question of individual income. Why do some people earn more than others? The     explanation that these economists settled on was that income resulted from     <i>productivity<\/i>. So a CEO who earns hundreds of times more than a     janitor does so for a simple reason: the CEO contributes far more to     society.   <\/span>  <\/p>\n<p>    <span style=\"color: #2b00fe;\"><span>The claim that income stems from productivity was not new. It dated         back to the 19th-century work of         <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/John_Bates_Clark\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">John Bates Clark<\/a>        and         <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Philip_Wicksteed\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Philip Wicksteed<\/a>, founders of the neoclassical theory of marginal productivity.<a href=\"http:\/\/40yrs.blogspot.com\/#fn3\"><sup>3<\/sup><\/a>        Clark and Wicksteed, though, were concerned only with the income of         social <i>classes<\/i>. What the Chicago-school economists did was expand         productivist theory to <i>individuals<\/i>.<\/span><\/span>  <\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;   <span style=\"color: #2b00fe;\">Doing so required inventing a new form of capital. The idea was that     individuals\u2019 skills and abilities actually constituted a stock of capital \u2014     <i>human capital<\/i>. This stock made individuals more productive, and     hence, earn more income. Figure <a href=\"http:\/\/40yrs.blogspot.com\/#fig-hc-papers\">3<\/a> shows key     papers that initiated human capital theory.<\/p>\n<p>    \u2026\u2026\u2026<\/p>\n<p>    The idea that skills constituted \u2018human capital\u2019 was initially greeted with     skepticism. For one thing, the term itself smacked of slavery. (Capital is     property, so \u2018human capital\u2019 implies human property.) For another, human     capital theory overtly justified inequality. It implied that no matter how     fat their incomes, the rich always earned what they produced. Any attempt     (by the government) to redistribute income would therefore \u2018distort\u2019 the     natural order. During the 1950s and 1960s, there was little tolerance for     such views. It was the era of welfare-state expansion, driven by     Keynesian-style thinking. Yes, big government may have been \u2018distorting\u2019 the     free market \u2014 but society seemed all the better for it.<\/p>\n<p>\u2026\u2026\u2026<\/p>\n<p>We can see the scientific flaws by returning to William Muir\u2019s  chicken experiment. I\u2019ve already told you about his psychopathic  chickens, created by breeding the most productive hens. But I haven\u2019t  told you about his alternative trial. In it, he bred the most productive  <i>group<\/i> of chickens. The result was an astonishing increase in egg-laying productivity.<\/p>\n<p>The reason this group selection worked is that chickens are <i>social<\/i> animals. That means productivity is influenced by the social  environment. By selecting productive groups, Muir selected for  egg-laying ability, but also for sociality. The resulting social hens  flourished together.<\/p>\n<p>Something similar holds true for humans. The abilities of individuals  cannot be separated from the social environment in which they occur.  For this reason, any selective breeding based on individual traits is  likely to have unintended consequences. If Muir\u2019s chicken experiment is  any indication, breeding \u00fcbermensch wouldn\u2019t create an uber-productive  society. It would create a psychopathic one.<\/p>\n<p>The reason comes down to the unit of selection. As social animals, humans have been strongly shaped by the selection of <i>groups<\/i>. This group selection has tended to suppress selfish tendencies that are otherwise beneficial for individuals.<\/p>\n<p><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The bottom line is this:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"color: #2b00fe;\">Human capital theory supposes that income stems from productivity, and that this productivity is an <em>isolated trait of the individual<\/em>.  This thinking, when taken to the extreme, is ludicrous. It implies that  an Egyptian Pharaoh was thousands of times more productive than his  slaves. Moreover, because this productivity was embodied in the Pharaoh,  he could do away with his slaves and still retain his wealth. It gets  worse. According to the logic of human capital theory, the Pharaoh\u2019s  slaves were actually a <em>burden<\/em> on the kingdom\u2019s per capita productivity. If the Pharaoh exterminated them, per capita productivity would skyrocket.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #2b00fe;\">Idiocy.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>We are run by a bunch of psychopathic hens.<\/p>\n<p>Well, psycho chickens makes a fuck-load more sense than that whole QAnon lizard people thing.<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There is a lot not to like about Economics. It seems that most streams of economics appear to be a means for justifying the existing power structure, with the benefit being that economists are given (relatively) high positions within that power structures. Political economist Blair Fix makes a good argument that modern Human Capital Theory, &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[544,392,464,504],"class_list":["post-175573","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","tag-academe","tag-economy","tag-good-writing","tag-philosophy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/175573"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=175573"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/175573\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=175573"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=175573"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=175573"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}