{"id":175742,"date":"2020-12-10T19:12:00","date_gmt":"2020-12-11T00:12:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2020\/12\/10\/the-velocity-of-a-dead-cat-at-the-apex-is-zero\/"},"modified":"2020-12-10T19:12:00","modified_gmt":"2020-12-11T00:12:00","slug":"the-velocity-of-a-dead-cat-at-the-apex-is-zero","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2020\/12\/10\/the-velocity-of-a-dead-cat-at-the-apex-is-zero\/","title":{"rendered":"The Velocity of a Dead Cat at the Apex is Zero"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a>It’s jobless Thursday, and initial jobless claims rose by 137,000 to 853,000 last week<\/a>, an almost 20% jump in claims. <\/p>\n

I have long maintained that the current “recovery” is a dead cat bounce*<\/sup>, and while one week does not make a trend, when combined with the recent Covid explosion, strongly suggest that we are in for a bumpy ride: <\/p>\n

The economic recovery has downshifted, with job growth slowing and layoffs persisting at a high level amid rising coronavirus cases<\/a> and related restrictions. <\/span><\/span> <\/p>\n

The number of workers seeking unemployment benefits, a proxy for layoffs, climbed sharply by 137,000 to 853,000 last week<\/a>, the Labor Department reported. <\/span><\/span> <\/p>\n

<\/span> <\/p>\n

The level of applications was the highest since September, but still well down from a peak of nearly seven million in late March. The number of applications for a separate federal pandemic program also rose sharply last week.<\/span><\/span> <\/p>\n

<\/span> <\/p>\n

The claims figures add to signs the recovery continues, but at a cooler pace. Job growth eased in November<\/a> and the number of job openings edged down in early December<\/a>. The labor market\u2019s partial rebound has been a key component in the overall economic recovery from a pandemic-related downturn in the spring.<\/span> <\/p>\n

<\/span> <\/p>\n

\u2026\u2026\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span> <\/p>\n

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this month cut their projections for economic growth<\/a> and job creation in the first quarter of 2021, but they expect the expansion to accelerate later in the year after coronavirus vaccines are more widely available.<\/span> <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

 This will not end well.\u2020<\/sup><\/p>\n

*<\/sup>I’ve been talking how the current “recovery” is a Dead Cat Bounce<\/a>, which posits that. “even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height”, for a while now.<\/span>
\u2020<\/sup>Thanks to my brother, Bear Who Swims, for a new catch phrase.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It’s jobless Thursday, and initial jobless claims rose by 137,000 to 853,000 last week, an almost 20% jump in claims. I have long maintained that the current “recovery” is a dead cat bounce*, and while one week does not make a trend, when combined with the recent Covid explosion, strongly suggest that we are in …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[450,458,494],"class_list":["post-175742","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","tag-employment","tag-recession","tag-statistics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/175742"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=175742"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/175742\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=175742"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=175742"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=175742"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}