{"id":176382,"date":"2020-06-29T18:20:00","date_gmt":"2020-06-29T23:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2020\/06\/29\/this-is-going-to-be-ugly\/"},"modified":"2020-06-29T18:20:00","modified_gmt":"2020-06-29T23:20:00","slug":"this-is-going-to-be-ugly","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2020\/06\/29\/this-is-going-to-be-ugly\/","title":{"rendered":"This Is Going to Be Ugly"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>It now appears that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2020-06-26\/manhattan-office-rents-seen-plunging-26-in-prolonged-downturn\">office rents in Manhattan are set to fall by more than a quarter<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Considering the leverage of most developers, and the relatively short term of real estate loans, they typically have to be refinanced every 5 years, we are looking at a huge number of bad loans popping up in the not too distant future:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span style=\"color: blue;\">Manhattan\u2019s office rents are likely to plummet to the lowest level since 2012 if the U.S. economy doesn\u2019t recover quickly from the pandemic.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">Asking rents could decline 26% to about $62.47 a square foot (roughly $672 per square meter) in a prolonged recession, according to a report from Savills. Rents haven\u2019t fallen to that level since 2012, the real estate services firm said.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span>\u2026\u2026\u2026<span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">Savills\u2019 research used indicators that it says are correlated to rental rates, including gross domestic product, unemployment and office vacancies in Manhattan.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Also, there is going to be a f%$# load of work from home which is likely to permanently depress office demand, because literally hundreds of thousands employers have discovered that you don&#8217;t have to have someone in the office 5 days a week. and that it saves them a fair chunk of change.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It now appears that office rents in Manhattan are set to fall by more than a quarter. Considering the leverage of most developers, and the relatively short term of real estate loans, they typically have to be refinanced every 5 years, we are looking at a huge number of bad loans popping up in the &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[450,456,572,393,458],"class_list":["post-176382","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","tag-employment","tag-finance","tag-pandemic","tag-real-estate","tag-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/176382"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=176382"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/176382\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=176382"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=176382"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=176382"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}