{"id":176574,"date":"2020-05-14T18:41:00","date_gmt":"2020-05-14T23:41:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2020\/05\/14\/another-3-million-new-jobless-claims\/"},"modified":"2020-05-14T18:41:00","modified_gmt":"2020-05-14T23:41:00","slug":"another-3-million-new-jobless-claims","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2020\/05\/14\/another-3-million-new-jobless-claims\/","title":{"rendered":"Another 3 Million New Jobless Claims"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>So the total since mid March, about 8 weeks, is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/aponline\/2020\/05\/14\/business\/bc-us-virus-outbreak-unemployment-benefits.html\">36\u00bd million new jobless claims<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Assuming that the normal level of claims is 225,000 (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dol.gov\/ui\/data.pdf\">PDF link, see page 6<\/a>), this means that the excess initial unemployment claims is <math xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\"><mn>36<\/mn><mo>,<\/mo><mn>500<\/mn><mo>,<\/mo><mn>000<\/mn><mo>&#8211;<\/mo><mn>225<\/mn><mo>,<\/mo><mn>000<\/mn><mo>\u00d7<\/mo><mn>8<\/mn><mo>=<\/mo><mn>34<\/mn><mo>,<\/mo><mn>700<\/mn><mo>,<\/mo><mn>000<\/mn><\/math> excess unemployment claims.<\/p>\n<p>The labor force was roughly 165 million with 3% unemployment, which gives about 170 million working or looking for work.<\/p>\n<p>Just subtracting the 34.7 million excess claims, and a lot of people have not been processed, gives 23.4% unemployment (U3).<\/p>\n<p>The above is just spit-balling by me, but it is not unreasonable to expect the unemployment rate to top 20% right now.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>So the total since mid March, about 8 weeks, is 36\u00bd million new jobless claims. Assuming that the normal level of claims is 225,000 (PDF link, see page 6), this means that the excess initial unemployment claims is 36,500,000&#8211;225,000\u00d78=34,700,000 excess unemployment claims. The labor force was roughly 165 million with 3% unemployment, which gives about &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[392,450,458,514],"class_list":["post-176574","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","tag-economy","tag-employment","tag-recession","tag-teotwawki"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/176574"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=176574"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/176574\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=176574"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=176574"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=176574"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}