{"id":177595,"date":"2019-08-08T19:33:00","date_gmt":"2019-08-09T00:33:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2019\/08\/08\/we-are-unbelievably-screwed-2\/"},"modified":"2019-08-08T19:33:00","modified_gmt":"2019-08-09T00:33:00","slug":"we-are-unbelievably-screwed-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2019\/08\/08\/we-are-unbelievably-screwed-2\/","title":{"rendered":"We Are Unbelievably Screwed"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>It looks like updated models are showing that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wunderground.com\/cat6\/New-Models-Point-More-Global-Warming-We-Expected\">anthropogenic climate change will be even more disastrous than previously predicted<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span style=\"color: blue;\">Our planet\u2019s climate may be more sensitive to increases in greenhouse gas than we realized, according to a new generation of global climate models being used for the next major assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/\">IPCC<\/a>). The findings\u2014which run counter to a 40-year consensus\u2014are a troubling sign that future warming and related impacts could be even worse than expected.<\/p>\n<p>One of the new models, the second version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), saw a 35% increase in its equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the rise in global temperature one might expect as the atmosphere adjusts to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Instead of the model\u2019s previous ECS of 4\u00b0C (7.2\u00b0F), the CESM2 now shows an ECS of 5.3\u00b0C (9.5\u00b0F).<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt is imperative that the community work in a multi-model context to understand how plausible such a high ECS is,\u201d said NCAR\u2019s Andrew Gettelman and coauthors in a <a href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1029\/2019GL083978\">paper<\/a> published last month in <i>Geophysical Research Letters<\/i>. They added: \u201cWhat scares us is not that the CESM2 ECS is wrong\u2026but that it might be right.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>At least eight of the global-scale models used by IPCC are showing  upward trends in climate sensitivity, according to climate researcher  Jo\u00eblle Gergis, an IPCC lead author and a scientific advisor to  Australia\u2019s Climate Council. Gergis wrote about the disconcerting trends  in an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.themonthly.com.au\/issue\/2019\/august\/1566136800\/jo-lle-gergis\/terrible-truth-climate-change\">August column<\/a> for the Australian website The Monthly.<\/p>\n<p>Researchers  are now evaluating the models to see whether the higher ECS values are  model artifacts or correctly depict a more dire prognosis.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I would note that every time that researchers update their models as a result of real world data, the predictions get more and more dire.<\/p>\n<p>We are in for a huge world of hurt.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It looks like updated models are showing that anthropogenic climate change will be even more disastrous than previously predicted: Our planet\u2019s climate may be more sensitive to increases in greenhouse gas than we realized, according to a new generation of global climate models being used for the next major assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[483,427,514],"class_list":["post-177595","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","tag-anthropogenic-climate-change","tag-science","tag-teotwawki"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/177595"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=177595"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/177595\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=177595"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=177595"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=177595"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}