{"id":182323,"date":"2015-10-20T18:00:00","date_gmt":"2015-10-20T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2015\/10\/20\/quote-of-the-day-137\/"},"modified":"2015-10-20T18:00:00","modified_gmt":"2015-10-20T23:00:00","slug":"quote-of-the-day-137","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2015\/10\/20\/quote-of-the-day-137\/","title":{"rendered":"Quote of the Day"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"border: 1px solid black; float: right; margin: 0px 10px; padding: 5px; text-align: center; width: 285px;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" allowfullscreen=\"\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"155\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/WiEDIt0vdrY\" width=\"275\"><\/iframe><br \/><i>Credit where credit is due, this is well executed CAS<\/i><\/div>\n<blockquote><p><span style=\"color: blue;\">It just goes to show there\u2019s only one man named Ash you should listen to, and he\u2019s too busy chainsawing evil dead to talk nonsense like this. <\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span style=\"color: blue;\">\u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/pando.com\/2015\/10\/19\/bombed-stupid\/8da0e2f6ba02de6fedb31946cdd15258e24463f9\/\">The War Nerd<\/a> On why Ash Carters on the Russian intervention in Syria are 6 pounds of sh%$ in a 5 pound bag. (<i>Paid Subscription usually required, but you can access it for the next 24 hours)<\/i><\/span> <\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The always entertaining War Nerd makes some very good points on <a href=\"https:\/\/pando.com\/2015\/10\/19\/bombed-stupid\/8da0e2f6ba02de6fedb31946cdd15258e24463f9\/\">the complete incoherence of the US\/Nato campaign in Syria<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span style=\"color: blue;\">I stole that headline from an Ernest movie, Scared Stupid. Always loved that title. \u201cScared Straight\u201d? I\u2019ve never seen fear make anybody smarter. When people get scared, they get stupid.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">And at the moment, the Anglo media is all scared about the Russian air strikes in Syria. So they\u2019ve started a counter-bombardment of their own, dumping tons of stupid on us helpless civilians.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">It\u2019s not even a consistent brand of stupid. It\u2019s all over the map: the Russian air strikes are bad because they\u2019re helping Islamic State, or because they\u2019re brutal, or because they\u2019ve failed.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">That last claim, that the Russian campaign has already failed, is the most ridiculous of all. Take this headline from the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/news\/worldnews\/middleeast\/syria\/11934564\/Russia-reducing-air-strikes-against-Syrian-rebels-as-intervention-fails.html\">Daily Telegraph<\/a>: \u201cRussia Reducing Air Strikes against Syrian Rebels as Intervention Fails.\u201d<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">\u201cFails,\u201d huh? Already? After\u2014well, lemme take my shoes off so I can count up the days since Russia started bombing Syria. Comes to 17 days, by my finger-and-toe reckoning. Who knew that an air bombardment campaign could be called a failure after slightly more than two weeks? Somebody should tell the USAF about this rule, because if memory serves, they\u2019ve run a few bombing campaigns that went on a little longer than 17 days before getting their reckoning.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">Buried deep in that story is the Russian command\u2019s actual statement:<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">&#8220;The intensity of our military aviation operations decreased slightly in the last 24 hours\u2026.a result of active offensive operations by the Syrian armed forces, the front line\/front-line [sic] with the terrorists is changing.&#8221;<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">That\u2019s a plausible account. The first rule of close air support is, \u201cDon\u2019t bomb your own people.\u201d&nbsp; And that\u2019s a tricky job when Russian-speaking pilots and air controllers are working with what\u2019s left of the Syrian Arab Army, a disorganized lot at the best of times. So the Russian claim may be the simple truth. Or not; who knows? All you can say for sure is that claiming a dip in sorties on Day 17 means the air campaign has failed is laughable BS.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">US Secretary of Defense Ash Carter joined the chorus, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/storyline\/isis-terror\/dod-sec-carter-russia-pouring-gasoline-fire-syria-n436361\">predicting<\/a> \u201cthe Russian campaign in Syria is doomed to fail.\u201d Doomed, yet!<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">And why, Mr. Carter, are those Russkies so doomed? Carter explained,<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">&#8220;Fighting ISIL without pursuing a parallel political transition only risks escalating civil war in Syria\u2026 There is a logical contradiction in the Russian position and now its actions in Syria.\u201d<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">It just goes to show there\u2019s only one man named Ash you should listen to, and he\u2019s too busy chainsawing evil dead to talk nonsense like this. Actually, Russia\u2019s campaign is much more simple and logical than the USAF\u2019s messed-up mission in Syria. Russia is using its air force to try to blast out a viable territory for an Alawite\/Shia state along the Syrian coastal hills. Assad\u2019s people are longtime Russian clients and allies, and the Russian air force is helping them maintain their key turf against a much more numerous enemy. It may fail, but at least that\u2019s a reasonable plan.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">\u2026\u2026\u2026<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">Maybe our Secretary of Defense knows something I don\u2019t know\u2014I mean beyond the best place for prime rib in Georgetown\u2014but it seems to me that the Russian air campaign makes very straightforward military sense.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">If there\u2019s an air force whose mission in Syria really does have \u201ca logical contradiction at its core,\u201d it\u2019s a little group called the USAF. Not that it\u2019s the USAF\u2019s fault; they do their jobs very well. But what job, exactly, what mission, were they given?<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">If you were to sum it up, it\u2019d go something like this: \u201cHit Sunni targets east of the coastal hills, but ignore everything to the west; help the Kurds in the north, but grudgingly, as little as possible, for fear you\u2019ll offend Turkey; and while you\u2019re attacking Assad\u2019s enemies, keep reassuring the Israelis that you\u2019re just as anti-Assad as you are anti-Islamic State.\u201d<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">Sound stupid? It is. It\u2019s a ridiculous compromise adopted to please the Israelis and Saudis, based on the dumb-ass notion that Sunni fighters in eastern Syria are evil sectarian bastards, but the Sunni fighters facing off against the SAA in the west are \u201cmoderates.\u201d<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">It\u2019s true that Islamic State is uncommonly vile, but let\u2019s not lie; the only faction in Syria that even tries to rise above sectarian hatred are the young Kurdish commies of YPG\/J. Every other group is sectarian, and militias that start out sectarian only get meaner as they go, by the iron logic of primitive war, where massacre is the norm. And this sectarian taint isn\u2019t new. Syria\u2019s Sunni were chanting \u201cChristians to Beirut, Alawites to the graveyard\u201d long before the fighting started. For once, Robert Fisk got it right, in an <a href=\"http:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/voices\/syria-s-moderates-have-disappeared-and-there-are-no-good-guys-a6679406.html\">article<\/a> called \u201cSyria\u2019s Moderates Have Disappeared, and There Are No Good Guys\u201d:<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">\u201cThe Russian air force in Syria has flown straight into the West\u2019s fantasy air space. The Russians, we are now informed, are bombing the \u201cmoderates\u201d in Syria \u2013 \u201cmoderates\u201d whom even the Americans admitted two months ago, no longer existed.\u201d<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">The crazy US policy of ignoring Sunni militias in the west made for some fat, soft targets. No wonder the Russian air force jumped at the chance to intervene. They must\u2019ve spent months drooling over drone and satellite photos from the west, between Homs and Aleppo\u2014targets totally untouched by the USAF.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">\u2026\u2026\u2026<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">Then the Russians decided it was time to show, Gulf War style, that they had some fancy shock-and-awe munitions of their own. These belated colonial wars are, among other things, great sales videos for arms exporters like the US and Russia.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">To see a typical Russian sales video, check out <a href=\"https:\/\/www.funker530.com\/massive-show-of-firepower-in-russiansyrian-offensive\/\">this clip<\/a> of a Russian attack on a defensive line, mixing bombers, CAS, and rocket launchers scattering cluster bombs. Watch it and see if it looks like a \u201cfailure.\u201d Because me, I personally would not want to be anywhere within five km of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.funker530.com\/massive-show-of-firepower-in-russiansyrian-offensive\/\">target zone<\/a>.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">\u2026\u2026\u2026<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">Notice how the guy filming it keeps saying, \u201cAllahu Akbar\u201d? That seemed odd to me. It\u2019s a Salafist battle cry as a rule. You never hear Alawites from the SAA shouting it in their battle videos. So I asked around, and apparently it marks the narrator as Sunni, a pretty slick, cinematic way of implying that the Russian\/Iranian\/Hezbollah\/Alawite side has some Sunni allies.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">So\u2026failure? No. Any advance will probably be slow; the lines don\u2019t change much in Syria, because the level of combat power across the board is very low. These are forces who\u2019d rather bombard each other than engage. Only Hezbollah has real combat power, and they\u2019re spending it thriftily.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">But there are already signs the Russian air strikes are allowing <a href=\"http:\/\/news.yahoo.com\/syrian-army-backed-iranian-fighters-advance-south-aleppo-105651385.html\">some advances<\/a>.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">That doesn\u2019t mean the Russian campaign will succeed; like Gandalf used to say, \u201cAll courses may run ill.\u201d  But at least they have a sane, comprehensible, achievable goal, unlike the US in Syria.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">Now for the next accusation, that the Russian strikes are brutal.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">Well, yeah, they are. That\u2019s the general idea. I don\u2019t mean to be flippant here, but air strikes only look neat when you stay up there and watch from the pilot\u2019s angle. On the ground, even the supposedly \u201csurgical\u201d strikes are nightmarish. Which, again, is the whole idea. And if we\u2019re going to be honest about it, we can stop pretending there are any neat, clean surgical strikes. A <a href=\"http:\/\/www.huffingtonpost.com\/entry\/drone-papers_561ed361e4b0c5a1ce61f463?v4w019k9\">new report<\/a> just came out showing that nine out of ten people hit by those targeted drone assassinations are civilians who happen to be in the vicinity.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">As a rule, you can tell when the media approve of air strikes by the angle. If it\u2019s all nice clean pilot\u2019s-view of distant explosions, it\u2019s a good strike. If they show you funerals, weeping relatives, blasted apartments, it\u2019s a bad strike. So you can tell, just from the headline\u2014\u201cThis Is What the Russian Air Strikes in Syria Look Like from the Ground\u201d\u2014that it\u2019s a bad strike. For example, ground-angle stories on Israeli airstrikes only started hitting the US media in the past few years. Now they\u2019re fairly common but for most of my lifetime you just didn\u2019t see those weeping Palestinians. When the strike is done by our own airforce, you still don\u2019t see them unless you go to foreign or marginal leftist sites. But boy do they start popping up when it\u2019s the Russians playing their air-to-ground video games.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">\u2026\u2026\u2026<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\">The Russians are bombing more or less the way all the other foreign air forces in Syria are bombing. They\u2019re having a more powerful effect <b><span style=\"font-size: 100%; font-variant: small-caps;\">because they\u2019re hitting targets that haven\u2019t been hit by first-world CAS til now<\/span><\/b>. That\u2019s the only difference.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">\u2026\u2026\u2026<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">Truth is, Russia and Islamic State have different projects going in Syria, projects that don\u2019t even overlap much. Syria is more full of bad projects than the ninth-grade Metal Shop class where they set my jacket on fire with a soldering iron (while I was wearing it). That place was full of projects thought up by adolescent psychopaths, all designed to kill or maim, and mostly ineffective.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">Which, come to think of it, is not a bad description of Syria at the moment. For a smallish country, Syria has more theaters of war going than a multiplex doing a Private Ryan marathon. The Kurds of YPG\/PKK have their own project going in the north, along the Turkish border. The Alawites are trying to survive and carve a rump state for themselves in the coastal hills. The Christians have executed a simple plan: \u201cget the Hell out of here while we can.\u201d Hezbollah\u2019s project could be summed up as, \u201cUgh, I guess we gotta help these weak-ass Alawites after all, damn it.\u201d Israel\u2019s project is \u201cAttack Hezbollah nonstop, but never touch the Sunni militias because they\u2019re not a real threat.\u201d Jabhat-an-Nusra, Ahrar-as-Sham, and the other Sunni militias are competing for ownership of the inland Sunni state they hope will come out of this chaos.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">But Islamic State? Their project isn\u2019t really about Syria at all. IS is an Iraqi outfit. Yeah, they have all these noisy foreign volunteers, the whole C-minus demographic of Birmingham, Dusseldorf, and Marseille, but that\u2019s not their real power. IS inherited Saddam\u2019s officer class, and their goal is to regain Baghdad. Syria is a side bet, one of the vacuums they\u2019re so good at occupying. Eastern Syria\u2014a flat dry place with few people except along the Euphrates\u2014was mostly abandoned by both the Alawites and the other Sunni militias, who focused on trying to win the more valuable real estate to the West. That\u2019s when Islamic State moved in from its Iraqi base and started a Syrian franchise.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">So the war Russia has joined isn\u2019t even really the same war that Islamic State is fighting. IS wants to embiggen its Iraq-based \u201ccaliphate\u201d; Russia wants to drive the other Sunni militias off that key highway, M5, so the Alawites can start a mini-state along the coast.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: blue;\"><br \/><\/span><span style=\"color: blue;\">Meanwhile, the \u201cmoderate\u201d Sunni militias are getting hit hard for the first time. As that happens, IS will push from the east, and the SAA\/Hezbollah\/Revolutionary Guards from the west. At some point, Russia\u2019s air power may meet IS head-on. But a lot of other dumb, bloodthirsty rival projects will have to get ground away in this multi-faction, multi-loon war before that happens.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I think that the Brecher is actually being a bit too sympathetic of the goals and strategy of the US here.<\/p>\n<p>Basically, Obama, once again is trying to please everyone, so you have him trying to appease:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The delusional interventionists on the right (Richard Pearle) and the left (Samantha Power)<\/li>\n<li>The US officer corps (particularly the wild blue yonder set) seeing this as another opportunity to further their careers<\/li>\n<li>The House of Saud&#8217;s desire to prosecute their thousand plus year old great game against the Shia. <\/li>\n<li>Islamist Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan&#8217;s delusional desire to extend Sunni hegemony over that part of the world while killing as many Kurds as possible.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>And while he is doing all of that, Obama is cowering in fear that he will be accused of &#8220;losing&#8221; Syria in the same way that Truman was accused of &#8220;losing&#8221; China by Nixon.<\/p>\n<p>Notwithstanding his running, and winning, on opposing &#8220;Stupid Wars&#8221; in the 2008 Presidential campaign, this war is even stupider than the invasion of Iraq.<\/p>\n<p>Bush and his evil minions<sup>\u2122<\/sup> were completely delusional and willfully ignorant, but at least they had a goal, while Obama and his evil minions<sup>\u2122<\/sup> are intervening simply because they think that they can.<\/p>\n<p>H\/t to Naked Capitalism for unlocking this for a few days.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Credit where credit is due, this is well executed CAS It just goes to show there\u2019s only one man named Ash you should listen to, and he\u2019s too busy chainsawing evil dead to talk nonsense like this. \u2014 The War Nerd On why Ash Carters on the Russian intervention in Syria are 6 pounds of &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[981,1002,986,1006,980],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-182323","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-civil-war","category-good-writing","category-middle-east","category-military","category-syria"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/182323"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=182323"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/182323\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=182323"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=182323"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=182323"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}