{"id":182360,"date":"2015-10-10T20:01:00","date_gmt":"2015-10-11T01:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2015\/10\/10\/interesting-point-2\/"},"modified":"2015-10-10T20:01:00","modified_gmt":"2015-10-11T01:01:00","slug":"interesting-point-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2015\/10\/10\/interesting-point-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Interesting Point"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Archdruid notes that the Russians have done more to stop ISIS in one week than the US, NATO, Turkey*<\/sup>, and the Gulf Monarchies have done in 2 years<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\u2026\u2026\u2026<\/span>

<\/span>Last night, working on this post, I wrote: \u201cThe Russian airstrikes so far have concentrated on rebel forces around the edges of the territory the Syrian government still holds, with some longer-range strikes further back to take out command centers, munitions dumps, and the like. The placement of the strikes says to me that the next moves, probably within weeks, will be against the rebel enclave north of Homs and the insurgent forces in Idlib province. I expect ground assaults backed up by artillery, helicopter gunships, and close-in air support\u2014vastly more firepower, in other words, that any side in the Syrian civil war has had at its disposal so far.\u201d This morning\u2019s news confirmed that guess, and added in another factor: Russian cruise missiles launched from the Caspian Sea fleet, most of a thousand miles from Syria. Once Idlib and the rest of western Syria is secured, I expect the Russians and their allies to march on Raqqa, the Islamic State\u2019s notional capital\u2014and I don\u2019t expect them to waste any more time in doing so than they\u2019ve wasted so far.<\/span>

<\/span>All this poses an immense embarrassment to the United States and its allies, which have loudly and repeatedly proclaimed the Islamic State the worst threat to world peace since the end of the Third Reich but somehow, despite a seemingly overwhelming preponderance of military force, haven\u2019t been able to do much of anything about it. Though it\u2019s hard to say for sure, given the fog of conflicting propaganda, it certainly looks as though the Russians have done considerably more damage to the Islamic State in a week than the US and its allies have accomplished in thirteen months of bombing. If that\u2019s the case, some extremely awkward questions are going to be asked. Is the US military so badly led, so heavily burdened with overpriced weapons systems that don\u2019t happen to work, or both, that it\u2019s lost the ability to inflict serious harm on an opponent? Or\u2014let\u2019s murmur this one quietly\u2014does the United States have some reason not to want to inflict serious harm on the Islamic State? <\/span>

<\/span>I suspect, though, that what\u2019s actually behind the disparity is something far simpler, if no less damaging to the prestige of the United States. I commented in an earlier post here that the US has been waging its inept campaign against Islamic State as though it\u2019s a video game\u2014hey, we killed a commander, isn\u2019t that worth an extra 500 points? Look at that from a different perspective and it becomes another example of the total disconnection of abstraction from reality.<\/span>

<\/span>The abstraction here is \u201cfighting Islamic State.\u201d You\u2019ll notice that it\u2019s not \u201cdefeating Islamic State\u201d\u2014in the realm of dysfunctional abstractions, such differences mean a great deal. Obama has decided that under his leadership, the US is going to fight Islamic State, and that\u2019s what the Pentagon is doing. At intervals, accordingly, planes go flying over various portions of Syria and Iraq to make desultory bombing runs on places where some intelligence analyst in suburban Virginia thinks an Islamic State target might have been located at some point in the last month or so.<\/span>

<\/span>That\u2019s \u201cfighting Islamic State.\u201d Nobody can point a finger at Obama and say that he\u2019s not fighting Islamic State, since the Air Force is still obligingly making those bombing runs. It doesn\u2019t matter that none of this has done anything to slow down the expansion of the Islamic State militia, or to stop its appalling human rights violations; that\u2019s in the grubby realm of realities, into which fastidious minds in Washington DC are unwilling to stoop.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

I think that the Druid is part right: The US is more interested in, “Fighting the Islamic State,” than it is in defeating the Islamic State.<\/p>\n

I think that there is also this: The non-Russian players in this game are fighting a war against both sides, the Syrian Government and Isis, and cannot allow either side to win, so they cannot do anything meaningful while continuing their search for moderate rebels, who are as rare as hen’s teeth.<\/p>\n

Russia, on the other hand has a non-contradictory and coherent goal, and so, they have actually made progress toward that goal.<\/p>\n

*<\/sup>I know that Turkey is in NATO, but as one of the governments that explicitly funded and supported ISIS, and that it considers the Kurdish armies fighting ISIS to be a bigger threat than Salafist militants, its strategic position is completely different.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Archdruid notes that the Russians have done more to stop ISIS in one week than the US, NATO, Turkey*, and the Gulf Monarchies have done in 2 years: \u2026\u2026\u2026Last night, working on this post, I wrote: \u201cThe Russian airstrikes so far have concentrated on rebel forces around the edges of the territory the Syrian …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[981,1002,986,1003,1033],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-182360","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-civil-war","category-good-writing","category-middle-east","category-philosophy","category-russia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/182360"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=182360"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/182360\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=182360"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=182360"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=182360"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}