{"id":184303,"date":"2012-06-07T19:56:00","date_gmt":"2012-06-08T00:56:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2012\/06\/07\/its-jobless-thursday-24\/"},"modified":"2012-06-07T19:56:00","modified_gmt":"2012-06-08T00:56:00","slug":"its-jobless-thursday-24","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2012\/06\/07\/its-jobless-thursday-24\/","title":{"rendered":"It&#8217;s Jobless Thursday"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>And initial jobless claim <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sfgate.com\/cgi-bin\/article.cgi?f=\/g\/a\/2012\/06\/07\/bloomberg_articlesM58YQ01A1I5401-M58ZB.DTL\">have fallen for the first time in over a month<\/a>, by 12K to a still crappy 377K, but the 4-week moving average rose, as did continuing claims, though extended claims fell.&nbsp; (It should be noted that extended claims are being impacted by people running out their strings, so the drop is not necessarily good news).<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/i.imgur.com\/BKNWC.png\" style=\"cursor: pointer; float: right; margin: 0px 0px 10px 10px;\" width=\"380\" \/>I would note that we also have a slightly wonkish bit data point, where the <a href=\"http:\/\/soberlook.com\/2012\/06\/tips-curve-has-inverted.html\">yield curve has inverted<\/a>, indicating that the markets think that the markets are expecting a deflationary environment:<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"color: blue;\"><p>One could argue that this is a positive development for the US consumer because it could mean price stability. However this move in TIPS certainly raises the risk of near-term deflation, driven by weak demand growth. And deflation is notoriously difficult to get under control. This feels (though only in the near term) a bit like Japan, a nation quite familiar with zero to negative inflation expectations.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Normally, the longer a bond, the higher the rate, because there is a cost to having your money locked up for long periods, but under certain conditions,&nbsp; like investors desperate for a safe haven, the rates drop as the term lengthens (up to a point).<\/p>\n<p>In a not entirely not unrelated note, the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2012\/06\/08\/business\/global\/china-cuts-interest-rates.html?google_editors_picks=true\">Chinese central bank has unexpectedly cut its benchmark rate<\/a> in response to their economy slows.<\/p>\n<p>Not a good economic news day.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>And initial jobless claim have fallen for the first time in over a month, by 12K to a still crappy 377K, but the 4-week moving average rose, as did continuing claims, though extended claims fell.&nbsp; (It should be noted that extended claims are being impacted by people running out their strings, so the drop is &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1170,973,975,1089,992],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-184303","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china","category-economy","category-employment","category-recession","category-statistics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/184303"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=184303"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/184303\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=184303"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=184303"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=184303"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}