{"id":186179,"date":"2014-04-16T18:31:00","date_gmt":"2014-04-16T23:31:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2014\/04\/16\/so-not-surprised-5\/"},"modified":"2014-04-16T18:31:00","modified_gmt":"2014-04-16T23:31:00","slug":"so-not-surprised-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2014\/04\/16\/so-not-surprised-5\/","title":{"rendered":"So Not Surprised"},"content":{"rendered":"

Getting away from the mindless contrarianism*<\/sup> that Nate Silver’s rebooted Fivethirtyeight dot com seems to specialize in, Ben Casselman actually does some meaningful statistics, and discovers that the end of extended unemployment benefits has not led to more people finding jobs<\/a>:<\/p>\n

The cutoff of federal unemployment benefits doesn\u2019t seem to be helping the long-term unemployed get back to work.<\/span>

<\/span>More than a million Americans saw their unemployment benefits expire at the start of the year, after Congress failed to renew the Emergency Unemployment Compensation<\/a> program. The program, which Congress created in 2008, had provided federally funded payments to unemployed workers when their state-funded benefits ran out, usually after 26 weeks.<\/span>
The Senate recently voted<\/a> to restore the benefits, but the House shows little sign of following suit.<\/span>

<\/span>Some economists had argued<\/a> that the program was doing more harm than good by discouraging recipients from looking for work or taking jobs. They said that because the job market was improving, the time had come to cut off benefits. That would prod the unemployed to get back to work, perhaps leading them to accept offers that seem less than ideal.<\/span>
So far, however, the evidence doesn\u2019t seem to support that theory. Rather than finding jobs, the long-term unemployed continue to be out of luck<\/a>.<\/span>

<\/span>We now have three months\u2019 worth of job market data since the benefits program expired. The chart below shows job-finding rates for the long-term and short-term unemployed. Notice three things: First, the short-term unemployed have a much better chance of finding a job than the long-term unemployed and always have. Second, the short-term unemployed are seeing a steady improvement in their prospects, but the long-term jobless are not. And third, there\u2019s been no major shift since the benefits program expired at the end of last year. (The chart shows the data as a 12-month rolling average, which could obscure a sudden shift. The un-smoothed data, however, doesn\u2019t show a jump either.)<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

What a surprise.<\/p>\n

The right wing economists, and those who listen to them, people who have been wrong about everything<\/b> since at least 1929 are wrong again.<\/p>\n

*<\/sup> AKA Michael Kinsley disease<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Getting away from the mindless contrarianism* that Nate Silver’s rebooted Fivethirtyeight dot com seems to specialize in, Ben Casselman actually does some meaningful statistics, and discovers that the end of extended unemployment benefits has not led to more people finding jobs: The cutoff of federal unemployment benefits doesn\u2019t seem to be helping the long-term unemployed …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[973,975,1166,992],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-186179","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-employment","category-michael-kinsley-disease","category-statistics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/186179"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=186179"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/186179\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=186179"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=186179"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=186179"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}