{"id":189115,"date":"2010-05-20T16:44:00","date_gmt":"2010-05-20T21:44:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2010\/05\/20\/economics-update-54\/"},"modified":"2010-05-20T16:44:00","modified_gmt":"2010-05-20T21:44:00","slug":"economics-update-54","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2010\/05\/20\/economics-update-54\/","title":{"rendered":"Economics Update"},"content":{"rendered":"
Click for full size<\/p>\n
\n

<\/a> This is not an expanding home market
H\/t Calculated Risk
<\/a><\/span><\/div>\n

Well, so much for green shoots, it’s jobless Thursday, and new claims rose by 25K this week to 471,000<\/a>, with the 4 week moving average rising by 3K to 453,500, though the continuing claims number fell by 40K to 4,630,000.<\/p>\n

It should be noted that the continuing claims number does not count those on emergency UI, like yours truly.<\/p>\n

Additionally, it should be noted that the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators posted its 1st<\/sup> drop since March 2009<\/a>. It should be noted that this is a volatile metric, and a folks who know economics generally want at least 3 months up or down before they declare a trend.<\/p>\n

Additionally, real estate is looking dicey.<\/p>\n

We have, “One in 7 US homeowners late paying or in foreclosure<\/a>,” actually 14.01%, in the 1st<\/sup> quarter of the year, with 10% of home owners late 90+ days<\/a>, and the AIA’s Architecture Billings Index shows continued contraction in April<\/a>, though this indicator for future commercial construction is did improve in comparison to March.<\/p>\n

Additionally, mortgage purchase applications fell to a 13 year low<\/a>, even as low rates kick-started the demand for refinancing.<\/p>\n

Note that this is despite near record low mortgage rates<\/a>.<\/p>\n

We are also seeing continuing erosion in the prices of commercial property<\/a>.<\/p>\n

On the plus side, the Philadelphia Bank of the Federal Reserve’s Manufacturing Activity Index rose in May<\/a>, and Japan’s economy grew faster than expected<\/a>.<\/p>\n

On the inflation side, the CPI fell by 0.1% in April<\/a>, and the core rate, which excludes food and energy, has risen .9% over the past 12 months, which is actually worrying, as it indicates a risk of a deflationary spiral\/lost decade.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Click for full size This is not an expanding home marketH\/t Calculated Risk Well, so much for green shoots, it’s jobless Thursday, and new claims rose by 25K this week to 471,000, with the 4 week moving average rising by 3K to 453,500, though the continuing claims number fell by 40K to 4,630,000. It should …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[973,975,1004,1200,1088,1089],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-189115","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-employment","category-finance","category-inflation","category-real-estate","category-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/189115"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=189115"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/189115\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=189115"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=189115"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=189115"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}