{"id":189138,"date":"2010-05-17T10:11:00","date_gmt":"2010-05-17T15:11:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2010\/05\/17\/the-lines-cross-and-the-white-house-backs-away-from-specter\/"},"modified":"2010-05-17T10:11:00","modified_gmt":"2010-05-17T15:11:00","slug":"the-lines-cross-and-the-white-house-backs-away-from-specter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2010\/05\/17\/the-lines-cross-and-the-white-house-backs-away-from-specter\/","title":{"rendered":"The Lines Cross, and the White House Backs Away From Specter"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Absolutely brutal, and completely<\/span> true.<\/p>\n

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And the lines cross<\/span><\/div>\n

I understand why the White House supported Arlen Specter in the Democratic primaries, it was a reward for his switching parties, and provided an inducement to other potential Republicans who might consider switching, like uh\u2026\u2026\u2026 uh\u2026\u2026\u2026 uh\u2026\u2026\u2026<\/p>\n

OK, there is not another potential switcher, but it all seemed so wonderfully hopey<\/span>–changey<\/span> post partisan.<\/p>\n

Well, largely on the basis of the fact that Arlen Specter is really all about Arlen Specter, and the fact that Joe Sestak<\/span> is pointing it out to people (see vid<\/span>), Arlen Specter is now lagging in the polls, and as the incumbent with good name recognition.<\/p>\n

The rule of thumb that the undecideds nearly always break for the challenger by something like 2:1, so I reiterate my statement that Arlen Specter is toast.<\/p>\n

So, the White House loses one here, and they are doing something really<\/span> stupid, which is to walk back their support of Specter now that it is likely that he is going to lose the election<\/a>:<\/p>\n

If this is true, it’s significant: CBS chief Washington correspondent Bob Schieffer<\/span> is now saying that he has it on good authority that the White House is privately bracing for Arlen Specter to lose tomorrow.<\/p>\n

\u2026\u2026\u2026<\/p>\n

I’ve also learned that Veep Joe Biden<\/span> will not be doing any campaign events for Specter in the final stretch, though it’s not immediately clear how significant this is. Last week, Biden<\/span> said he’d be doing events for Specter “as needed.”<\/p>\n

But a Biden<\/span> aide confirms for me that no campaign events are scheduled, even though Biden<\/span> will be in Pennsylvania tonight speaking at his daughter’s graduation. Biden<\/span> has done radio interviews on Specter’s behalf.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

This recognizes a problem with the Obama administration, and for the Clinton and Carter administrations before them: An unwillingness to continue fighting when victory seems unlikely.<\/p>\n

I can understand some talking points flowing out about, “an anti-incumbency mood,” and suchlike, but the idea that when faced with less than a 50:50 change of success, the choice is to fold like overcooked Brussels sprouts has negative consequences.<\/p>\n

It convinces allies that you don’t have their back<\/span>, and it convinces opponents that they can take a temporary advantage, and use it to kill a proposal early in the process.<\/p>\n

I never thought that they should support Specter, or for that matter Lincoln, but sawing off the branch won’t endear other Democrats with the concept of going out on a limb for Obama.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Absolutely brutal, and completely true. And the lines cross I understand why the White House supported Arlen Specter in the Democratic primaries, it was a reward for his switching parties, and provided an inducement to other potential Republicans who might consider switching, like uh\u2026\u2026\u2026 uh\u2026\u2026\u2026 uh\u2026\u2026\u2026 OK, there is not another potential switcher, but it …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[998,1000,1091,1027,1173],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-189138","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-congress","category-elections","category-polls","category-video","category-white-house"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/189138"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=189138"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/189138\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=189138"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=189138"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=189138"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}