{"id":189404,"date":"2010-04-03T20:10:00","date_gmt":"2010-04-04T01:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2010\/04\/03\/economics-update-for-the-week-2\/"},"modified":"2010-04-03T20:10:00","modified_gmt":"2010-04-04T01:10:00","slug":"economics-update-for-the-week-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2010\/04\/03\/economics-update-for-the-week-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Economics Update (For the Week)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"border: 1px solid black; margin: 0px 10px; padding: 5px; width: 400px; float: right; text-align: center;\">Click for full size<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/img32.imageshack.us\/img32\/3355\/employpopmarch201057103.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/img32.imageshack.us\/img32\/3355\/employpopmarch201057103.jpg\" bordercolor=\"white\" border=\"0\" width=\"390\" \/><\/a><span style=\"font-style: italic;\"><br \/>Employment\/Population Ratio Still at 1983 Levels<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/img682.imageshack.us\/img682\/5202\/unemployeddurationmarch.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/img682.imageshack.us\/img682\/5202\/unemployeddurationmarch.jpg\" bordercolor=\"white\" border=\"0\" width=\"390\" \/><\/a><br \/>Long-term unemployment is still at a 40+ Year high<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/img11.imageshack.us\/img11\/8136\/bankruptcymarch20105520.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/img11.imageshack.us\/img11\/8136\/bankruptcymarch20105520.jpg\" bordercolor=\"white\" border=\"0\" width=\"390\" \/><\/a><br \/>Personal bankruptcies on level with pre-bankruptcy reform numbers (H\/t <a href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2010\/04\/personal-bankruptcy-filings-surge-in.html\">Calculated Risk<\/a>)<\/span><\/div>\n<p>Well, we have the employment numbers for March out now, and the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/idUSN1715009520100402\">March non-farm payroll numbers (NFP) rose by 162,000<\/a>, with unemployment (U3)remaining at 9.7%, and the<a href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/empsit.t15.htm\"> broader U6 unemployment number remained basically flat<\/a>, increasing from 16.8% to 16.9% (seasonally adjusted).<\/p>\n<p>This <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">is<\/span> an improvement.  It&#8217;s the largest NFP jump in 3 years.<\/p>\n<p>That being said, some things to note:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The US Census hired 48,000 temp employees in March.<\/li>\n<li>You <a href=\"http:\/\/bigpicture.typepad.com\/comments\/2007\/11\/cyclical-jobs-r.html\">need about 150,000 new jobs each month<\/a> to accommodate people entering the workforce.<\/li>\n<li>Some of this may be hiring from prior months that was delayed because of the various snowpocalypse weather events that occurred.<\/li>\n<li>Long term unemployment increased.<\/li>\n<li>Involuntary part time employment increased (largely why U6 is up)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>About 8 million people have lost jobs in this recessions, and at a NFP payroll increase of 162K a month, it would take more than 50 years for everyone who lost their jobs to get another job, so while it <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">is<\/span> an improvement, things are <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">at best<\/span> treading water, but the trend does appear to be getting better.<\/p>\n<p>Still, the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2010\/04\/employment-population-ratio-part-time.html\">employment\/population ratio is at a 27 year low<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2010\/04\/duration-of-unemployment.html\">long term unemployment is at a 40+ year high<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Also, we have<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>A <a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessweek.com\/news\/2010-04-01\/jobless-claims-in-u-s-decreased-by-6-000-last-week-to-439-000.html\">decrease  in first time unemployment claims this week to 439,000<\/a>, the lowest  level since August 2008, with the 4-week moving average and the  continuing claims falling as well, though emergency claims (26+ weeks)  increased.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=newsarchive&amp;sid=aKBVswcpwXBE\">State  tax receipts are showing improvement as well<\/a>, with collections  expected to improve for the first time in 2 years.<\/li>\n<li>The Institute for Supply Management&#8217;s Manufacturing Diffusion Index<a href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/us-ism-manufacturing-index-rises-to-6-year-high-2010-04-01-101100?reflink=MW_news_stmp\"> rose to its highest reading in nearly 6 years<\/a>. <\/li>\n<li>Automobile sales in the United States <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/\/id\/36133013\">posted double digit year over year growth<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Still, all in all, I have to say that we are seeing a recovery, but it&#8217;s a feeble and fragile recovery.<\/p>\n<p>We still have some areas of concern, most notably that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.thestreet.com\/story\/10716219\/1\/construction-spending-hits-8-year-low.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN\">construction spending fell once again<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2010\/04\/02\/business\/economy\/02bankruptcy.html?partner=rss&amp;emc=rss&amp;pagewanted=all\">personal bankruptcies rose sharply<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Click for full size Employment\/Population Ratio Still at 1983 Levels Long-term unemployment is still at a 40+ Year high Personal bankruptcies on level with pre-bankruptcy reform numbers (H\/t Calculated Risk) Well, we have the employment numbers for March out now, and the March non-farm payroll numbers (NFP) rose by 162,000, with unemployment (U3)remaining at 9.7%, &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1108,973,975,1088,1089],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-189404","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-auto-industry","category-economy","category-employment","category-real-estate","category-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/189404"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=189404"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/189404\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=189404"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=189404"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=189404"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}