{"id":189427,"date":"2010-03-31T19:55:00","date_gmt":"2010-04-01T00:55:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2010\/03\/31\/economics-update-71\/"},"modified":"2010-03-31T19:55:00","modified_gmt":"2010-04-01T00:55:00","slug":"economics-update-71","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2010\/03\/31\/economics-update-71\/","title":{"rendered":"Economics Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"border: 1px solid black; margin: 0px 10px; padding: 5px; width: 400px; float: right; text-align: center;\">Click for full size<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/img97.imageshack.us\/img97\/3498\/phillyfedcoincident.gif\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/img97.imageshack.us\/img97\/3498\/phillyfedcoincident.gif\" bordercolor=\"white\" border=\"0\" width=\"390\" \/><\/a><br \/><span style=\"font-style: italic;\">Philly Fed 1<sup>st<\/sup> Q: 25 states down, 18 up, 7 unchanged<br \/><\/span><\/div>\n<p>The official non-farm payroll (NFP) number comes out on Friday, but today we have the private report from ADP, which shows <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/id\/36112877\">a loss of 23,000 jobs<\/a>, but the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ritholtz.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/withholding-taxes-surge-in-march\/?utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29\">payroll withholding taxes numbers imply an increase in total jobs of something in the 300,000 range<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Bank of the Federal Reserve has released its <a href=\"http:\/\/www.philadelphiafed.org\/research-and-data\/regional-economy\/indexes\/coincident\/\">State   Coincident Indexes<\/a>, which show that half of the states contracted over the past 3 months, and 23 decreased in the past month.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s better than it was a year ago, but it&#8217;s still not good.<\/p>\n<p>In the consumer sector, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/wp-dyn\/content\/article\/2010\/03\/29\/AR2010032903309.html\">consumer  spending rose in February<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2010\/03\/30\/news\/economy\/consumer_confidence_index\/index.htm?section=money_topstories&amp;utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fmoney_topstories+%28Top+Stories%29\">the Conference Board&#8217;s Consumer Confidence Index rose in March<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>On the production side, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/\/id\/36114427\">factory orders rose for the 6<sup>th<\/sup> month<\/a>, though the data was not good in the Midwest, with the, with the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/chicago-pmi-index-moves-lower-in-march-2010-03-31?dist=countdown\">Chicago   purchasing managers index falling<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>In real estate, mortgage application, including purchases, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessweek.com\/news\/2010-03-31\/u-s-mba-mortgage-applications-index-rose-1-3-last-week.html\">rose last week<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/2010\/03\/31\/fannie-delinquencies-reach-all-time-high-at-5-52\/\">Fannie Mae has reported that mortgage delinquencies rose to 5.52%<\/a> in January.<\/p>\n<p>Note that because of the different times covered, these numbers may be consistent.<\/p>\n<p>Across the ponds, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessandfinance.ie\/cat_news_detail.jsp?itemID=1271\">Euro  zone inflation rose to 1.5% year over year, and unemployment broke 10%<\/a>, while in China, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=20601110&amp;sid=aIHYsPOz7Xlk\">manufacturing grew faster than forecast in March<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, for reasons that I do not understand, <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2010\/03\/31\/markets\/oil\/\">oil rose<\/a>, though the Chinese manufacturing data might have led to concerns over additional demand,  and both the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=20601110&amp;sid=aXaxz5AskbW4\">dollar and the  Yen fell<\/a> on reduced demand for safe havens.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Click for full size Philly Fed 1st Q: 25 states down, 18 up, 7 unchanged The official non-farm payroll (NFP) number comes out on Friday, but today we have the private report from ADP, which shows a loss of 23,000 jobs, but the payroll withholding taxes numbers imply an increase in total jobs of something &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1080,973,975,1135,1089],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-189427","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-currency","category-economy","category-employment","category-energy","category-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/189427"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=189427"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/189427\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=189427"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=189427"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=189427"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}