{"id":190248,"date":"2009-12-17T20:49:00","date_gmt":"2009-12-18T01:49:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/12\/17\/economics-update-115\/"},"modified":"2009-12-17T20:49:00","modified_gmt":"2009-12-18T01:49:00","slug":"economics-update-115","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/12\/17\/economics-update-115\/","title":{"rendered":"Economics Update"},"content":{"rendered":"
Click for full size<\/p>\n
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<\/a> h\/t Calculated Risk<\/a><\/span><\/div>\n

Yea, sure, the recession is over. That’s why initial jobless claims rose again this week<\/a>, up 7000 to 480,000, and continuing claims rose as well, though the 4-week average fell.<\/p>\n

I’m beginning to think that those “stunning” NFP payroll numbers<\/a> in November were an artifact of a seasonal correction of some kind.<\/p>\n

In any case, real estate is not looking so hot, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rising again<\/a>, and the estimates for the “shadow inventory” in housing , basically homes that are being foreclosed on, or are being held off the market by the foreclosing institutions to keep from depressing prices too much was revised upward<\/a>:<\/p>\n

The number of homes that may be in the pipeline for a sale because of foreclosure and delinquency climbed about 55 percent to 1.7 million at the end of September, according to estimates by First American CoreLogic.<\/p>\n

The \u201cshadow inventory\u201d rose from 1.1 million a year earlier. Such properties include those taken over by banks and mortgage companies and those where the loans are at least 90 days delinquent, the Santa Ana, California-based research firm said in a report today. The number of unsold homes listed for sale was 3.8 million in September, down from 4.7 million a year earlier, First American said. <\/p><\/blockquote>\n

So I think that any claim to a recovery in residential real estate has been, greatly exaggerated.<\/p>\n

That being said, the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators, as well as the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank’s Business Outlook Survey both showed signs of growth<\/a>, though, as Calculated Risk notes<\/a>, the recovery is weaker than in earlier months, indicating, perhaps, the start of a “W” downturn.<\/p>\n

In either case, the LEI and the Philly Fed report did not seem to have much of an effect on Treasuries, which rose<\/a>, meaning that the yield dropped, largely on concerns about Greece.<\/p>\n

This sentiment also drove the dollar up<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In energy, the strong dollar drove oil down<\/a>, but natural gas rose<\/a>, largely on the cold weather and smaller than expected inventory numbers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Click for full size h\/t Calculated Risk Yea, sure, the recession is over. That’s why initial jobless claims rose again this week, up 7000 to 480,000, and continuing claims rose as well, though the 4-week average fell. I’m beginning to think that those “stunning” NFP payroll numbers in November were an artifact of a seasonal …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1094,1080,973,975,1135,1088,1089],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-190248","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-campaign-finance","category-currency","category-economy","category-employment","category-energy","category-real-estate","category-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/190248"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=190248"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/190248\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=190248"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=190248"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=190248"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}