{"id":190261,"date":"2009-12-16T20:25:00","date_gmt":"2009-12-17T01:25:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/12\/16\/not-like-vietnam-at-all\/"},"modified":"2009-12-16T20:25:00","modified_gmt":"2009-12-17T01:25:00","slug":"not-like-vietnam-at-all","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/12\/16\/not-like-vietnam-at-all\/","title":{"rendered":"Not Like Vietnam At All\u2026\u2026\u2026\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>After all, we aren&#8217;t seeing bogus body counts.<\/p>\n<p>In the Vietnam war, there was a statistical anomaly:  numbers ending in 5 and 10 were conspicuously absent, to the tune of millions of times beyond what random chance, IIRC, and it was a lecture almost 30 years ago it was greater than 5\u03c3.<\/p>\n<p>Well, we <a href=\"http:\/\/thepoorman.net\/2009\/12\/09\/the-3030-club\/\">have another magic number in Afghanistan<\/a>, 30<sup>*<\/sup> (also <a href=\"http:\/\/securitycrank.wordpress.com\/2009\/12\/07\/winning-the-war-30-taliban-at-a-time\/\">here<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/thepoorman.net\/2009\/07\/27\/three-thirty-thats-the-magic-number\/\">here<\/a>):<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"color: rgb(0, 0, 153);\"><p>Just how often has the U.S. and NATO killed the Taliban in groups of 30 during 2009? The answer may surprise you:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.adnkronos.com\/AKI\/English\/Security\/?id=3.0.4078881631\">Adnkronos<\/a>, 12\/07\/2009: \u201cUp to 30 suspected militants were killed in a NATO airstrike on a Taliban hideout in eastern Afghanistan close to the Pakistani border on Monday. The airstrike targeted the village of Sangar Dara in the mountainous Watapur district of Kunar province , the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) said.\u201d<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.sfgate.com\/cgi-bin\/article.cgi?f=\/c\/a\/2008\/12\/04\/MNDK14GQON.DTL\">SF Chronicle<\/a>, 12\/04\/2009: \u201cAir strikes in two areas of the Mohmand border region killed 30 suspected militants, a military statement said. It said the strikes were \u201chighly successful\u201d but provided no further details, including whether any civilians were hurt.\u201d<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/news.xinhuanet.com\/english\/2009-11\/04\/content_12386794.htm\">Xinhua<\/a>, 11\/04\/2009: \u201cThe military said that the troops have killed 30 more militants during the last 24 hours, bringing the total fatalities to 400, as the operation in the country\u2019s tribal area steadily progressed towards the Taliban strongholds in South Waziristan.\u201d<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.google.com\/url?sa=t&amp;source=archive&amp;ct=res&amp;cd=1-0&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fnews.xinhuanet.com%2Fenglish%2F2009-08%2F31%2Fcontent_11972836.htm&amp;ei=LFAdS5nhBJyDgAeZspSkCw&amp;usg=AFQjCNFpmzK7RZECgjSOxJ8bz4HoTDBo-g\">Xinhua<\/a>, 08\/31\/2009: \u201cAt least 30 bodies of suspected Taliban fighters were recovered in northwest Pakistan\u2019s insurgency-hit Swat valley on Monday, witnesses said. The Pakistani army said they were killed in fighting with the security forces.\u201d<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.calgaryherald.com\/news\/soldiers+killed+complex+Afghan+attack\/1760333\/story.html\">Calgary Times<\/a>, 07\/04\/2009: \u201cThe attack included an attempted suicide truck bombing of the base in the Zirok district of southeastern Paktika province, local officials said. As many as 30 Taliban insurgents might have been killed when troops called in air strikes, they said.\u201d<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.khaleejtimes.com\/DisplayArticleNew.asp?xfile=data\/international\/2009\/June\/international_June2014.xml&amp;section=international\">Khaleej Times<\/a>, 06\/24\/2009: \u201cThirty Taliban militants were killed in clashes with NATO and Afghan forces in separate incidents in southern Afghanistan, officials said Wednesday.\u201d<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.straitstimes.com\/Breaking%2BNews\/Asia\/Story\/STIStory_390608.html\">Straits Times<\/a>, 06\/15\/2009: \u201cSecurity officials in the region said that about 30 militants were killed in Mohmand agency, close to the provincial capital Peshawar.\u201d<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.monstersandcritics.com\/news\/southasia\/news\/article_1480066.php\/Two_British_soldiers_among_dozens_killed_in_Afghanistan__Roundup__\">Monsters and Critics<\/a>, 05\/28\/2009: \u201cIn another incident, the Afghan Defence Ministry said Thursday that its troops, backed by international forces, killed 30 suspected militants in neighbouring Khost province Wednesday after the militants attacked their joint base.\u201d<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.monstersandcritics.com\/news\/southasia\/news\/article_1477124.php%20\/At_least_30_Taliban_reported_dead_in_shelling_of_Pakistan_redoubt_\">Monsters and Critics<\/a>, 05\/14\/2009: \u201cAt least 30 Taliban fighters were killed Thursday when government artillery fire destroyed their hideout in north-west Pakistan, residents and officials said, as concerns about the fate of thousands of refugees in the region grew amid an escalating humanitarian crisis. Up to 30 suspected militants were in the compound when it was hit, and the Taliban have moved the dead and injured to an undisclosed location, he said.\u201d<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/idUSSP458556\">Reuters<\/a>, 01 April 2009: \u201cU.S. and Afghan forces have killed 30 Taliban fighters, including a local commander, in an operation in Afghanistan\u2019s southern province of Helmand, the Interior Ministry said on Wednesday.\u201d<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.khabrein.info\/index.php?option=com_content&amp;task=view&amp;id=20136&amp;Itemid=57\">IRNA<\/a>, 02\/17\/2009: \u201cSuspected US drone fired missiles on a training camp of Taliban militants in a Pakistani tribal region on Monday, killing around 30 people, witnesses and official sources said.\u201d<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2009\/01\/02\/world\/asia\/02afghan.html\">New York Times<\/a>, 01\/01\/2009: \u201cOn Wednesday, the Taliban came for revenge. A group of about 30 Taliban fighters swooped in on Mullah Salam\u2019s house and opened fire. They killed at least 20 of his bodyguards, Afghan officials said. The Taliban claimed that they killed 32. Two of the attackers died.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>It appears that this is a holdover from Rumsfeld days:<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"color: rgb(0, 0, 153);\"><p>We don\u2019t know much about how it works, but in 2007, Marc Garlasco, the Pentagon\u2019s former chief of high-value targeting, offered a glimpse when he told Salon magazine that in 2003, \u201cthe magic number was 30.\u201d That meant that if an attack was anticipated to kill more than 30 civilians, it needed the explicit approval of then-Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld or President George W. Bush. If the expected civilian death toll was less than 30, the strike could be OKd by the legal and military commanders on the ground.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>We let me quote a decent man who had a complete sh$# for a son, George Romney, Mitt&#8217;s dad, who described the misinformation handed to him by the military on Vietnam as &#8220;brainwashing.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>He was right, and Obama has allowed himself to buy into this crap.<\/p>\n<p><sup>*<\/sup><span style=\"font-size:78%;\">Yeah, there is also that whole #3 person on the chain of command of al Qaeda, who has a life span that rivals that of Ensign Liebowitz of star ship security on a landing party with Kirk, Spock, and McCoy.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After all, we aren&#8217;t seeing bogus body counts. In the Vietnam war, there was a statistical anomaly: numbers ending in 5 and 10 were conspicuously absent, to the tune of millions of times beyond what random chance, IIRC, and it was a lecture almost 30 years ago it was greater than 5\u03c3. Well, we have &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1153,970,992,1098],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-190261","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-afghanistan","category-corruption","category-statistics","category-war"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/190261"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=190261"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/190261\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=190261"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=190261"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=190261"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}