{"id":190506,"date":"2009-11-19T21:18:00","date_gmt":"2009-11-20T02:18:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/11\/19\/economics-update-124\/"},"modified":"2009-11-19T21:18:00","modified_gmt":"2009-11-20T02:18:00","slug":"economics-update-124","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/11\/19\/economics-update-124\/","title":{"rendered":"Economics Update"},"content":{"rendered":"
Click for full size<\/p>\n
\n

<\/a>
The Number Needs to be Under 400,000
H\/t Calculated Risk<\/a>
<\/span><\/div>\n

The Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose for the 7th<\/sup><\/a> straight month<\/a>, indicating that a recovery is underway, as does the Philadelphia Bank of the Federal Reserve’s survey of manufacturing hitting 16.7<\/a>, the highest level since June, 2007.<\/p>\n

Unemployment though, is not cooperating, with initial unemployment claims unchanged from last week, they are still 505,000,<\/a> unemployed is still on a pace to increase.<\/p>\n

Basically, if it is above 400K, it still sucks, and this applies to the 4 week moving average too, which fell to 514,000, down 6,500<\/p>\n

The continuing claims numbers are better, down 39,000 to 5.61 million, but still pretty grim too.<\/p>\n

I would note that the continuing claims number does not count people who have moved to extended benefits, and that jumped 119,000 to 4.16 million.<\/p>\n

You do the math 39,000 on the up side, 119,000 on the down side, gives us 80,000 of ugly.<\/p>\n

In any case, concerns about continued growth, which I think were driven by the lack of improvement in first time claims, has people fleeing to safety again, with yields on 3-month Treasury Bill maturing in January going negative<\/a> for the first time since December of last year, because people are willing to pay<\/span> to keep their money safe for the next month or so..<\/p>\n

Additionally, we have the Bank of Japan sending out signals that it will be keeping rates low<\/a>, because it is concerned about deflation.<\/p>\n

These concerns have driven oil down<\/a> and the dollar and yen up<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Click for full size The Number Needs to be Under 400,000H\/t Calculated Risk The Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose for the 7th straight month, indicating that a recovery is underway, as does the Philadelphia Bank of the Federal Reserve’s survey of manufacturing hitting 16.7, the highest level since June, 2007. Unemployment though, is not …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1080,973,975,1135,1004,1200,1089],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-190506","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-currency","category-economy","category-employment","category-energy","category-finance","category-inflation","category-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/190506"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=190506"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/190506\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=190506"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=190506"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=190506"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}