{"id":190528,"date":"2009-11-17T18:41:00","date_gmt":"2009-11-17T23:41:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/11\/17\/economics-update-yesterday-too\/"},"modified":"2009-11-17T18:41:00","modified_gmt":"2009-11-17T23:41:00","slug":"economics-update-yesterday-too","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/11\/17\/economics-update-yesterday-too\/","title":{"rendered":"Economics Update (Yesterday Too)"},"content":{"rendered":"
Click for full size<\/p>\n
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<\/a>H\/t Calculated Risk<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/a>
Empire State Manufacturing Index<\/p>\n

<\/a>
H\/t Calculated Risk<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/a>
The Power of Computers Over Inventory<\/p>\n

<\/a>
H\/t Calculated Risk<\/a><\/span><\/div>\n

Sorry about missing yesterday, life intervened.<\/p>\n

Well, retail sales rose in October<\/a>, (1st<\/sup> pic)up 1.4% from September’s anemic post “cash for clunkers” numbers.<\/p>\n

September was down 2.3%, so you can do the math.<\/p>\n

We also had the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Empire State Manufacturing Index falling in November<\/a>, though it is still above zero, indicating continued growth. (2nd<\/sup> pic)<\/p>\n

This is consistent with the small rise in industry capacity utilization<\/a>. (3rd<\/sup> Pic)<\/p>\n

Additionally, we have business inventories falling September<\/a>, (4th<\/sup> Pic) and it looks like inventory restocking won’t be the thing that makes this a v-shaped recovery.<\/p>\n

One interesting note on this graph: You can see a generally downward trend in the ratio of inventory to sales, and it is likely a result of the increasing computerization of retail.<\/p>\n

Once you have a better picture of what you need, and when, you need to keep less as a backup.<\/p>\n

In real estate, today’s news was grim, with delinquencies on commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) rising 28 basis points<\/a> (0.28%) in October, to 3.86%, or about 1 in 30.<\/p>\n

In home mortgages, delinquencies hit a new record<\/a>, with 6.25%, or about 1 in 16 mortgages being 60 days or further delinquent, which is a very scary number.<\/p>\n

We also have the National Association of Home Builders\/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index flat in November<\/a>, at 17, which is a pretty awful number. (5th<\/sup> Pic)<\/p>\n

Finally, in currency and energy, the dollar rose<\/a> on comments by Ben Bernanke which imply support of a strong dollar policy by the fed, and oil rose<\/a>, largely on the expectation of more demand to support retail activity during the holiday season.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Click for full size H\/t Calculated Risk Empire State Manufacturing Index H\/t Calculated Risk The Power of Computers Over Inventory H\/t Calculated Risk Sorry about missing yesterday, life intervened. Well, retail sales rose in October, (1st pic)up 1.4% from September’s anemic post “cash for clunkers” numbers. September was down 2.3%, so you can do the …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1005,1060,973,1089],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-190528","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-business","category-computer","category-economy","category-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/190528"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=190528"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/190528\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=190528"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=190528"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=190528"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}