{"id":190575,"date":"2009-11-12T19:01:00","date_gmt":"2009-11-13T00:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/11\/12\/economics-update-126\/"},"modified":"2009-11-12T19:01:00","modified_gmt":"2009-11-13T00:01:00","slug":"economics-update-126","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/11\/12\/economics-update-126\/","title":{"rendered":"Economics Update"},"content":{"rendered":"
Click for full size<\/p>\n
\n

<\/a> Unemployment, H\/t Calculated Risk<\/a><\/span><\/div>\n

Today is Jobless Thursday, and new jobless claims fell to 503,000<\/a>, down from 514,000 (revised from 512K_) the lowest since January, with the 4 week moving average falling to 519,750 from last week’s 524,250, and continuing claims fell to 5.63 million.<\/p>\n

This is good news, but we need to be down to about 400K a week to be in jobless recovery, as opposed to “job-loss recovery”, mode, (see graph pr0n, right) so there is still a way to go.<\/p>\n

I would note that the metrics that involve moving physical objects, like port and truck traffic, and this week’s report on rail traffic from the AAR<\/a> are still week. with traffic in October down 15.3% from a year ago, and down 0.3% from September.<\/p>\n

It looks like bad news for the monoliner bond insurers is heating up, with French bond insurer CIFG is on a path to an insolvency filing<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In real estate, mortgage applications hit a 9-year low<\/a>, despite the fact that the 30-year fixed mortgage fell again<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Additionally, we have dueling headlines, with CNBC saying, “Foreclosures Fall Again<\/a>,” (true, though the call the improvement “fleeting”) but Bloomberg saying that, “U.S. Foreclosure Filings Surpass 300,000 for 8<\/sup><\/a>th<\/a><\/a><\/sup> Straight Month<\/a>.” (also true.<\/p>\n

Your call as to hed is the right one.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, there was an auction for 30 year Treasuries, and prices fell<\/a>, because….Hell, I don’t know why they fell….Maybe inflation concerns, since the 3 and 10-year auctions were fairly well received.<\/p>\n

Then we have our last bit, energy and currency, and oil fell<\/a>, largely on an unexpectedly high inventory numbers, and the dollar rose<\/a>, as investors looked for a safe haven.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Click for full size Unemployment, H\/t Calculated Risk Today is Jobless Thursday, and new jobless claims fell to 503,000, down from 514,000 (revised from 512K_) the lowest since January, with the 4 week moving average falling to 519,750 from last week’s 524,250, and continuing claims fell to 5.63 million. This is good news, but we …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[973,975,1004,1045,1088,1089,1035],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-190575","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-employment","category-finance","category-insurance","category-real-estate","category-recession","category-transportation"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/190575"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=190575"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/190575\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=190575"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=190575"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=190575"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}