{"id":190806,"date":"2009-10-23T16:47:00","date_gmt":"2009-10-23T21:47:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/10\/23\/economics-update-138\/"},"modified":"2009-10-23T16:47:00","modified_gmt":"2009-10-23T21:47:00","slug":"economics-update-138","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/10\/23\/economics-update-138\/","title":{"rendered":"Economics Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"border: 1px solid black; margin: 0px 10px; width: 410px; float: right; text-align: center;\">Click for full size<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/img198.imageshack.us\/img198\/7982\/cmbsballoonamounts77017.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/img198.imageshack.us\/img198\/7982\/cmbsballoonamounts77017.png\" bordercolor=\"white\" border=\"0\" width=\"400\" \/><\/a> <span style=\"font-style: italic;\">Scary Picture of the Day:<br \/><a href=\"http:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/2009\/10\/22\/cre-refinance-pressure-to-continue-for-months\/\">Commercial Mortgage Back Security Amounts by Maturity Date<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/img20.imageshack.us\/img20\/717\/freddiemacdelinquency83.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/img20.imageshack.us\/img20\/717\/freddiemacdelinquency83.jpg\" bordercolor=\"white\" border=\"0\" width=\"400\" \/><\/a><br \/>Or Maybe this is the Scary Picture, H\/T <a href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2009\/10\/freddie-mac-delinquency-rate-rises-to.html\">Calculated Risk<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/img264.imageshack.us\/img264\/2769\/2009098872687.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/img264.imageshack.us\/img264\/2769\/2009098872687.jpg\" bordercolor=\"white\" border=\"0\" width=\"400\" \/><\/a><br \/>Philadelphia Fed Index, State by State<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/img264.imageshack.us\/img264\/1716\/phillyfedstatesep098884.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/img264.imageshack.us\/img264\/1716\/phillyfedstatesep098884.jpg\" bordercolor=\"white\" border=\"0\" width=\"400\" \/><\/a><br \/>Philadelphia Fed Index, Historical<\/span><\/p>\n<p>As a Friday bonus, here is Barry Ritholtz, of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ritholtz.com\/\">The Big Picture<\/a> schooling a blissfully ignorant &#8216;Phant Congressman on the Consumer Protection Agency:<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http:\/\/www.msnbc.msn.com\/id\/22425001\/vp\/33448533#33448533\" scrolling=\"no\" width=\"396\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"339\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Good news, everyone <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/\/id\/33447930\">Existing home sales hit a two year high<\/a>&#8230;Or maybe not&#8230;As Barry Ritholtz notes, there is an increase <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ritholtz.com\/blog\/2009\/10\/existing-home-sales-fall-in-september-09\/\">only when factoring seasonal adjustments<\/a>, it fell otherwise, and those adjustments are problematic when under such circumstances.<\/p>\n<p>Reinforcing Mr. Ritholtz&#8217;, and my, opinion of the state or real estate is the fact that  <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/BROKER\/idUSN2549344620091023\">Freddie Mac&#8217;s September delinquencies hit an all time high<\/a>. (top graph)<\/p>\n<p>More generally, we have the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2009\/10\/philly-fed-state-coincident-indicators.html\">Philly Fed State Coincident Index continuing to show widespread weakness<\/a>. (3<sup>rd<\/sup> and 4<sup>th<\/sup> graph down)<\/p>\n<p>Also, we have the little employment tidbit that the<br \/><a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/article\/average-unemployment-period-hits-all-time-record-high-6-months\">average unemployment period has hit 6 months<\/a>, an all time high.<\/p>\n<p>On the other side of the pond, UK GDP <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=aA4yuANivXCQ\">fell at twice the forecast rate, 0.4%<\/a>, in the 3<sup>rd<\/sup> quarter.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, both the <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2009\/10\/23\/markets\/dollar.reut\/index.htm\">dollar and the Pound Sterling rose against the Euro<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/businessNews\/idUSTRE56T3EA20091023?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=businessNews\">oil fell again<\/a>, though it is still above $80\/bbl.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Click for full size Scary Picture of the Day:Commercial Mortgage Back Security Amounts by Maturity Date Or Maybe this is the Scary Picture, H\/T Calculated Risk Philadelphia Fed Index, State by State Philadelphia Fed Index, Historical As a Friday bonus, here is Barry Ritholtz, of The Big Picture schooling a blissfully ignorant &#8216;Phant Congressman on &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[973,975,1088,1089],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-190806","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-employment","category-real-estate","category-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/190806"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=190806"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/190806\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=190806"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=190806"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=190806"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}