{"id":191030,"date":"2009-10-02T15:16:00","date_gmt":"2009-10-02T20:16:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/10\/02\/this-aint-your-dads-recession\/"},"modified":"2009-10-02T15:16:00","modified_gmt":"2009-10-02T20:16:00","slug":"this-aint-your-dads-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/10\/02\/this-aint-your-dads-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"This Ain&#8217;t Your Dad&#8217;s Recession"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"border: 1px solid black; margin: 0px 10px; width: 410px; float: right; text-align: center;\">Click for full size<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/img9.imageshack.us\/img9\/2839\/employmentdrop.gif\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/img9.imageshack.us\/img9\/2839\/employmentdrop.gif\" bordercolor=\"white\" border=\"0\" width=\"400\" \/><\/a> <span style=\"font-style: italic;\">Fall in employment participation at post Great Depression high<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/img38.imageshack.us\/img38\/2797\/unemploymenttrends20091.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/img38.imageshack.us\/img38\/2797\/unemploymenttrends20091.jpg\" bordercolor=\"white\" border=\"0\" width=\"400\" \/><\/a><br \/>U3 to U6<\/span><\/div>\n<p>So, we have the numbers for September today, and <a href=\"http:\/\/online.wsj.com\/article\/SB125448660657759257.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us\">they really suck<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The non-farm payrolls fell by 263,000 in September, well above the consensus estimate of 175,000, and the unemployment rate (U3) went from 9.7% to 9.8%.<\/p>\n<p>Additionally, the numbers for factory orders fell in August, as did non defense capital goods, durable goods, and manufacturing inventories fell by  for the 12<sup>th<\/sup> straight month.<\/p>\n<p>Unless you are a banker, or Obama&#8217;s economic team, this is not a recovery.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.motherjones.com\/kevin-drum\/2009\/10\/out-work\">Kevin Drum<\/a>, citing <a href=\"http:\/\/delong.typepad.com\/sdj\/2009\/10\/another-bad-employment-report-i-wish-we-had-a-ripcord-to-pull-department.html\">Brad Delong<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/capitalgainsandgames.com\/blog\/andrew-samwick\/1151\/upside-down-employment-report\">Andrew Samwick<\/a>, note that workforce participation has fallen further than at any time since the Great Depression.<\/p>\n<p>The numbers, peak to trough declines in workforce participation.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li> 1948 \u2014 2.2%<\/li>\n<li> 1953 \u2014 3.1%<\/li>\n<li> 1958 \u2014 2.5%<\/li>\n<li> 1960 \u2014 1.4%<\/li>\n<li> 1969 \u2014 1.9%<\/li>\n<li> 1974 \u2014 2.4%<\/li>\n<li> 1979 \u2014 3.0%<\/li>\n<li> 1990 \u2014 2.0%<\/li>\n<li> 2000 \u2014 2.7%<\/li>\n<li>2008 \u2014 <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">4.6%<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>This is just <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">really<\/span> scary stuff, particularly when, like me, you are looking for a job.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Click for full size Fall in employment participation at post Great Depression high U3 to U6 So, we have the numbers for September today, and they really suck. The non-farm payrolls fell by 263,000 in September, well above the consensus estimate of 175,000, and the unemployment rate (U3) went from 9.7% to 9.8%. Additionally, the &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[973,975,1089],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-191030","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-employment","category-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191030"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=191030"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191030\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=191030"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=191030"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=191030"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}