{"id":191131,"date":"2009-09-22T06:58:00","date_gmt":"2009-09-22T11:58:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/09\/22\/economics-update-a-day-late-13\/"},"modified":"2009-09-22T06:58:00","modified_gmt":"2009-09-22T11:58:00","slug":"economics-update-a-day-late-13","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/09\/22\/economics-update-a-day-late-13\/","title":{"rendered":"Economics Update (a Day Late)"},"content":{"rendered":"
ABI Graph Pr0n H\/t Calculated Risk<\/a><\/span><\/div>\n

The index of leading economic indicators rose 0.6% in August<\/a>, the 5th<\/sup> straight month, which implies very strongly that the recession ended in July or August.<\/p>\n

I don’t really see this as a “recovery for the rest of us.” Even the most optimistic forecasters see a slow recovery in unemployment, and real-estate, which took us down in the first place, looks like it will do so again, this time on the commercial (CRE) side too.<\/p>\n

We are seeing mortgage delinquencies hitting 7.58%, up from 7.32% in July and a new record<\/a>, and AIA’s Architectural Billings Index fell in August<\/a>, which indicates that future activity is trending down in 9-12 months.<\/p>\n

Additionally, the YoY price of CRE fell 27%<\/a>, and rents are down too, everywhere<\/span>.<\/p>\n

Rents are falling at near rates not seen in nearly a \u00bc cedntury on some of the most prestigious streets<\/a>, 5th<\/sup> and Madison Avenues in New York, the Champs-Elysees in Paris, London’s New Bond Street, and Causeway Bay in Hong Kong,<\/p>\n

This is a real<\/span> problem because the mortgages on these properties are typically 5 years, and if the owner is under water at the end of their loan, they default, because they cannot rollover into a new loan.<\/p>\n

Unlike a home loan, the owner cannot just sit tight.<\/p>\n

It appears that the currency and the energy markets are concerned about this too, with Oil falling on demand concerns<\/a>, and the dollar rising<\/a> as investors look to a safe haven.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ABI Graph Pr0n H\/t Calculated Risk The index of leading economic indicators rose 0.6% in August, the 5th straight month, which implies very strongly that the recession ended in July or August. I don’t really see this as a “recovery for the rest of us.” Even the most optimistic forecasters see a slow recovery in …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[973,1004,1088,1089],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-191131","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-finance","category-real-estate","category-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191131"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=191131"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191131\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=191131"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=191131"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=191131"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}