{"id":191419,"date":"2009-08-18T17:37:00","date_gmt":"2009-08-18T22:37:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/08\/18\/economics-update-166\/"},"modified":"2009-08-18T17:37:00","modified_gmt":"2009-08-18T22:37:00","slug":"economics-update-166","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/08\/18\/economics-update-166\/","title":{"rendered":"Economics Update"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/a> Housing Starts, Courtesy Calculated Risk<\/a><\/span><\/div>\n

I guess that it’s time to rejoice, because the IMF’s chief economist is saying that the global recession is over<\/a>…Seeing as how they handled things like the Asian Financial Crisis of the 1990s, I’m inclined to believe that they are not a reliable source.<\/p>\n

I would also note that he has a huge<\/span> caveat in this, “we may not go back to the old growth path … potential output may be lower than it was before the crisis,” which to my mind sounds like a permanent decline in economic activity, and thus the recession might be over because normalcy is being redefined.<\/p>\n

That being said, we are seeing signs of either a recovery, or a pause in the path downward, with credit card defaults moderating somewhat<\/a>, so, for example, BoA’s charge-off rate dropped to 13.81% last month, down 0.05% from the level in June.<\/p>\n

Basically, the numbers are still pretty horrible, but they aren’t getting any worse…yet.<\/p>\n

We also have a stronger consumer confidence level in August<\/a>, with the Investor’s Business Daily and TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence (IBD\/TIPP) Economic Optimism Index rising to 50.3 in August from 46.3 last month, and this is a real positive number as 50 is the dividing line between optimism and pessimism.<\/p>\n

In inflation, producer prices fell by -0.9% from the previous month<\/a>, and the year over year price decline was -6.8%, beating the predictions of -0.3% and -5.9% respectively.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, in the UK, consumer inflation remained steady at 1.8%<\/a>, but it had been predicted to drop to 1.5%.<\/p>\n

Real estate is confusing, or at least the reporting of it is.<\/p>\n

The data came out today, and the coverage is interesting, with Bloomberg noting that single-family housing starts rose for the 5th<\/sup> straight month<\/a>, but CNN noting that housing starts and building permits declined<\/a> with only<\/span> single family housing starts showing an improvement, and that the year over year numbers are way down.<\/p>\n

I’d go with CNN here, because:<\/p>\n