{"id":191468,"date":"2009-08-14T14:24:00","date_gmt":"2009-08-14T19:24:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/08\/14\/unbelievably-bad-political-analysis\/"},"modified":"2009-08-14T14:24:00","modified_gmt":"2009-08-14T19:24:00","slug":"unbelievably-bad-political-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/08\/14\/unbelievably-bad-political-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"Unbelievably Bad Political Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/img216.imageshack.us\/img216\/4520\/15qdr938609019.gif\" style=\"margin: 0px 0px 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer;\" \/>Someone at <span style=\"font-style: italic;\">Political Wire<\/span> <a href=\"http:\/\/politicalwire.com\/archives\/2009\/08\/14\/burr_leads_all_possible_challengers.html\">declares that Richard Burr (R-NC) is comfortably ahead of all potential challengers<\/a>, because he has 43% of the voter against all of the, 43%-31% against Elaine Marshall, 43%-28% vs Cal Cunningham, and 43%-27% against Kenneth Lewis.<\/p>\n<p>Just so you know, the rule of thumb is that undecideds break <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">at least 2:1 against the incumbent<\/span>,<sup>*<\/sup> so any time an incumbent is below 50%, they are in trouble, and an incumbent at 43%, is is very real trouble, particularly when his approval number is 38%.<\/p>\n<p>This number has his campaign staff soiling their drawers.<\/p>\n<p>Morons.<\/p>\n<p><sup>*<\/sup><span style=\"font-size:78%;\">I ran the numbers against Elaine Marshall and it comes to a 3% margin in the <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: bold;font-size:78%;\" >best<\/span><span style=\"font-size:78%;\"> case.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Someone at Political Wire declares that Richard Burr (R-NC) is comfortably ahead of all potential challengers, because he has 43% of the voter against all of the, 43%-31% against Elaine Marshall, 43%-28% vs Cal Cunningham, and 43%-27% against Kenneth Lewis. Just so you know, the rule of thumb is that undecideds break at least 2:1 &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[998,1000,1091,982],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-191468","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-congress","category-elections","category-polls","category-stupid"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191468"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=191468"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191468\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=191468"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=191468"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=191468"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}