{"id":191612,"date":"2009-07-20T19:41:00","date_gmt":"2009-07-21T00:41:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/07\/20\/economics-update-177\/"},"modified":"2009-07-20T19:41:00","modified_gmt":"2009-07-21T00:41:00","slug":"economics-update-177","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/07\/20\/economics-update-177\/","title":{"rendered":"Economics Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The obvious lede here is that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=20601110&amp;sid=aZA46FdvUO3A\">the leading economic indicators have risen for the 3<sup>rd<\/sup> straight month<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>3 straight months is supposed to indicate that that a recovery is likely.<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m not sure just what the recovery is supposed to be, as in the nonsensically titled article, &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/marketsNews\/idUSN2033044620090720\">Commercial property price drop may signal bottom<\/a>,&#8221; which takes the position that a -7.6% price decline in May, which followed a -8.6% decline in April, (-16.2% in 2 months<span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">!!<\/span>), a -29% year over year decline, and -34.8% decline from peak is not the next tsunami in real estate and banking.<\/p>\n<p>The fact that <a href=\"http:\/\/news.yahoo.com\/s\/nm\/20090720\/bs_nm\/us_bank_mortgages\">commercial mortgage defaults have hit a20-year high<\/a> would seem to mitigate against any recovery any time soon in the commercial real estate sector.<\/p>\n<p>In any case, commercial lender CIT, not to be confused with Citi, managed to cut a deal which staved off bankruptcy, and this calmed investors, which increased their optimism and appetite for risk, which<br \/><a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2009\/07\/20\/markets\/dollar.reut\/index.htm\">pushed the dollar to a 6 week low<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2009\/07\/20\/markets\/oil.reut\/index.htm\">drove oil prices up<\/a>, though retail gasoline, which lags oil prices, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/money\/industries\/energy\/2009-07-20-gas-prices-wwekly-eia_N.htm\">fell to an 8 week low<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The obvious lede here is that the leading economic indicators have risen for the 3rd straight month. 3 straight months is supposed to indicate that that a recovery is likely. I&#8217;m not sure just what the recovery is supposed to be, as in the nonsensically titled article, &#8220;Commercial property price drop may signal bottom,&#8221; which &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1080,973,1135,1004,1088,1089],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-191612","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-currency","category-economy","category-energy","category-finance","category-real-estate","category-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191612"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=191612"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191612\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=191612"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=191612"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=191612"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}