{"id":191658,"date":"2009-07-13T17:16:00","date_gmt":"2009-07-13T22:16:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/07\/13\/economics-update-181\/"},"modified":"2009-07-13T17:16:00","modified_gmt":"2009-07-13T22:16:00","slug":"economics-update-181","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/07\/13\/economics-update-181\/","title":{"rendered":"Economics Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Interesting day.  Not a whole bunch of news, but what I saw looks like it might mean more than it seems.<\/p>\n<p>First, we have <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=acLkvdIwcqKw\">10-year treasuries spiking<\/a>, because bond investors believe that the economy will <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">not<\/span> be recovering this year.<\/p>\n<p>We may also have S&amp;P warning of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.thestandard.com.hk\/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=1&amp;art_id=84770&amp;sid=24550283&amp;con_type=1\">a lending bubble in China<\/a>, with the possibility of a &#8220;sharp deterioration in banks&#8217; assets,&#8221; over the next few months as a result.<\/p>\n<p>I think that if the bond market is right, and that is a big if, then the expansion of lending in China does have a real possibility of a significant hang-over in the next few months.<\/p>\n<p>It does seem that pessimism is ruling energy and currency too, with <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2009\/07\/12\/news\/economy\/gas_prices_lundberg.cnnw\/index.htm?section=money_topstories\">retail gasoline having its biggest 2 week drop since the end of last year<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2009\/07\/13\/markets\/oil.reut\/index.htm\">crude oil closing at a 2 month low<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Additionally, demand for a safe haven has <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2009\/07\/13\/markets\/dollar.reut\/index.htm\">driven the dollar higher<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Interesting day. Not a whole bunch of news, but what I saw looks like it might mean more than it seems. First, we have 10-year treasuries spiking, because bond investors believe that the economy will not be recovering this year. We may also have S&amp;P warning of a lending bubble in China, with the possibility &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1170,1080,973,1135,1004,1089],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-191658","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china","category-currency","category-economy","category-energy","category-finance","category-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191658"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=191658"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191658\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=191658"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=191658"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=191658"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}