{"id":191727,"date":"2009-07-01T21:21:00","date_gmt":"2009-07-02T02:21:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/07\/01\/economics-update-188\/"},"modified":"2009-07-01T21:21:00","modified_gmt":"2009-07-02T02:21:00","slug":"economics-update-188","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/07\/01\/economics-update-188\/","title":{"rendered":"Economics Update"},"content":{"rendered":"
Unemployment Rate Actual data vs. the Summers-Geithner Stress Test Assumptions
H\/T Calculated Risk<\/a><\/span><\/div>\n

The obvious lede is the various corporate measures of job cuts<\/a>, with ADP Employer Services saying that there were 393K private-sector jobs cut, Challenger, Gray & Christmas saying that planned job cuts in June were 74,393, and the Monster Employment Index<\/a> (PDF) moderating somewhat for June.<\/p>\n

These are a bit better than May, but only in “the 2nd<\/sup> derivative is improving” way.<\/p>\n

Jobs are still being cut, when you need to job growth to match the growth of the work force.<\/p>\n

In related “2nd<\/sup> derivative” news, there is CNN trumpeting the fact that the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing index rose for the 6th straight month<\/a>:, while Bloomberg correctly<\/span> notes that what this really means is that Manufacturing in U.S. Shrank at Slower Pace in June<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Falling less slowly is not improvement.<\/p>\n

I am so sick of hack Panglossian journalists.<\/p>\n

We also have mortgage applications falling to a 7 month low<\/a>, which indicates that right now the housing market is in a death dance with economic recovery.<\/p>\n

Any recovery will bump interest rates a few points, but that will kill any recovery in real estate……Catch 22.<\/p>\n

If you want some good news, industrial sentiment rose in Japan<\/a>, but it’s a “2nd<\/sup> derivative” thing too, with the index rising to minus<\/span> 48 in June from minus<\/span> 58 in March.<\/p>\n

The only really<\/span> good news, is that Calculated Risk’s June Economic Summary in Graphs<\/a> is out, so there is some good chart pr0n for the wonks.<\/p>\n

In energy, we have US Diesel inventories up<\/a>, along with both oil<\/a> and gasoline<\/a> falling on increasing inventories.<\/p>\n

Finally, the dollar fell<\/a>, though I can’t tell if this is China’s suggestion of an alternate reserve currency, or because all the “2nd<\/sup> derivative” stuff make investors feel less of a need for a safe haven.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Unemployment Rate Actual data vs. the Summers-Geithner Stress Test Assumptions H\/T Calculated Risk The obvious lede is the various corporate measures of job cuts, with ADP Employer Services saying that there were 393K private-sector jobs cut, Challenger, Gray & Christmas saying that planned job cuts in June were 74,393, and the Monster Employment Index (PDF) …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1080,973,975,1135,1004,974,1088,1089],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-191727","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-currency","category-economy","category-employment","category-energy","category-finance","category-hack-journalism","category-real-estate","category-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191727"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=191727"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191727\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=191727"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=191727"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=191727"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}