{"id":191740,"date":"2009-06-30T17:16:00","date_gmt":"2009-06-30T22:16:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/06\/30\/economics-update-189\/"},"modified":"2009-06-30T17:16:00","modified_gmt":"2009-06-30T22:16:00","slug":"economics-update-189","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/06\/30\/economics-update-189\/","title":{"rendered":"Economics Update"},"content":{"rendered":"
Case-Shiller<\/span> data vs. the Stress Test Assumptions
H\/T Calculated Risk<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n


Default rates on mortgages, Also
H\/T <\/span>Calculated Risk<\/a><\/div>\n

Uh-oh, consumer confidence fell in June<\/a>, largely based on job<\/span> concerns.<\/p>\n

The reporter interviews an analyst who is surprised about this, because of , “the fact that the S&P 500 is close to 40 percent off its March lows.”<\/p>\n

The fact is that the general public is better at recognizing a dead cat bounce than this analyst, because they are concerned about jobs, which are still being lost.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile in the world of real estate, or perhaps we should call it un<\/span><\/span>real estate, the
Case-Shiller<\/span> index posted an 18.1% year over year drop<\/a>, and delinquencies on prime<\/span> mortgages going off the charts<\/a>.<\/p>\n

We also got GDP numbers for the 1st<\/sup> quarter from the UK, and we have their economy falling off a cliff<\/a>, down 2.4% for the quarter, and 4.9% year over year.<\/p>\n

Maybe the good news is that there U.K. house prices rose in June<\/a>, following May’s increase, up 0.9%, though it’s still down 9.3% year over year.<\/p>\n

Until I see year over year numbers below 2%, I don’t see any green shoots, just the 2nd<\/span><\/sup> derivative of price going positive.<\/p>\n

In any case, the crappy consumer confidence report drove oil down<\/a> and the dollar up<\/a>, as there are concerns about reduced demand for oil, and a flight to safety in dollars.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Case-Shiller data vs. the Stress Test Assumptions H\/T Calculated Risk Default rates on mortgages, Also H\/T Calculated Risk Uh-oh, consumer confidence fell in June, largely based on job concerns. The reporter interviews an analyst who is surprised about this, because of , “the fact that the S&P 500 is close to 40 percent off its …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1080,973,1135,984,1004,1088,1089],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-191740","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-currency","category-economy","category-energy","category-europe","category-finance","category-real-estate","category-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191740"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=191740"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191740\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=191740"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=191740"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=191740"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}