{"id":191798,"date":"2009-06-23T17:21:00","date_gmt":"2009-06-23T22:21:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/06\/23\/economics-update-194\/"},"modified":"2009-06-23T17:21:00","modified_gmt":"2009-06-23T22:21:00","slug":"economics-update-194","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/06\/23\/economics-update-194\/","title":{"rendered":"Economics Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"border: 1px solid black; margin: 0px 10px; width: 410px; float: right; text-align: center;\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/img268.imageshack.us\/img268\/39\/phillyfedmaymap9328309.jpg\" bordercolor=\"white\" border=\"0\" width=\"400\" \/><br \/>Philly Fed Coincident Index(<span style=\"font-style: italic;\">red is bad<\/span>)<\/div>\n<p>The Philadelphia Bank of the Federal Reserve has released its &#8220;state coincident indicators&#8221;, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2009\/06\/philly-fed-state-coincident-indicators.html\">49 of 50 states showed contraction during the past quarter<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>And another day, another <a href=\"http:\/\/www.researchrecap.com\/index.php\/2009\/06\/22\/sp-downgrades-more-us-prime-jumbo-rmbs\/\">S&amp;P downgrades of residential mortgage backed securities<\/a>.  They review 101, and downgraded 93 of them.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.realtor.org\/press_room\/news_releases\/2009\/06\/ehs_continue\">May existing home roes<\/a>, but the year over number is still down, and median home prices have declined 16.7% year over year, so there is no incication that prices are falling.<\/p>\n<p>Distressed home sales, foreclosures, short sales, etc., declined to only 33% (!) of sales from 45% (!!!) in April, so we are still well in vulture territory.<\/p>\n<p>There looks to be downward pressure on interest rates, as <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2009\/06\/23\/markets\/bondcenter\/bonds.reut\/index.htm?section=money_topstories\">treasurys have risen<\/a>, pushing the yield down.<\/p>\n<p>Not much in the way of &#8220;green shoots&#8221; in Europe, with both <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/businessNews\/idUSTRE55L0QZ20090623?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=businessNews\">consumer spending in France and the a purchasing managers&#8217; index in Germany falling<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Of course everyone is holding their breath about what the Federal Open Market Committee will do tomorrow, though the consensus is that they will not raise rates, which <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=aXC6MwXTNrCE\">pushed the dollar lower<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The falling dollar, and unrest in Nigeria, <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2009\/06\/23\/markets\/oil.reut\/index.htm\">drove oil up today\/a>, it finished the session at just below $70\/bbl.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Philly Fed Coincident Index(red is bad) The Philadelphia Bank of the Federal Reserve has released its &#8220;state coincident indicators&#8221;, and 49 of 50 states showed contraction during the past quarter. And another day, another S&amp;P downgrades of residential mortgage backed securities. They review 101, and downgraded 93 of them. Meanwhile, May existing home roes, but &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1080,973,1135,984,1004,1088,1089,985],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-191798","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-currency","category-economy","category-energy","category-europe","category-finance","category-real-estate","category-recession","category-regulation"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191798"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=191798"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191798\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=191798"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=191798"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=191798"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}