{"id":191840,"date":"2009-06-18T17:16:00","date_gmt":"2009-06-18T22:16:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/06\/18\/economics-update-197\/"},"modified":"2009-06-18T17:16:00","modified_gmt":"2009-06-18T22:16:00","slug":"economics-update-197","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/06\/18\/economics-update-197\/","title":{"rendered":"Economics Update"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a>Well, I’ve missed a point on jobless claim numbers, which came out today<\/a>, and showed increasing initial jobless claims, from 605,000 to 608,000, still into what Atrios<\/span><\/a> calls “holy crap” territory, but that continuing claims fell from 6.74 million to 6.69 million.<\/p>\n

I generally find continuing claims to be a better metric, but, as Susie Madrak<\/span> notes<\/a>, continuing claims<\/span> do not count people whose benefits have been exhausted.<\/p>\n

I’m not sure how to account for this in the data, but it is<\/span> a factor.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, we do have some unequivocally good news in the April vehicle miles driven statistics from the DOT<\/a> for the first time in 20 months, which could be an indicator of a recovery, though gas prices nationally are about a buck cheaper, which may also be goosing the driving numbers.<\/p>\n

We also have the index of leading economic indicators rising<\/a>, a good sign, though the Philadelphia Fed’s Business Outlook Survey improved significantly<\/a>, though it still shows contraction, so it’s an positive 2nd<\/span><\/sup> derivative.<\/p>\n

It also looks like yesterday’s report of declining mortgage bond yields did predict today’s report of falling mortgage rates<\/a>, with the 30 year fixed rate dropping 21 basis points (0.21%) to 5.38%, which should relieve some of the pressure on housing.<\/p>\n

Still, with Midtown Manhattan office rents falling<\/a>, down 28% year over year (!), the other show in real estate, the commercial side, is clearly <\/span>dropping.<\/p>\n

A note on the recent rise in interest rates, the real yield (interest -inflation) on 10 year treasuries is at a 15 year high<\/a>, over 5%, which indicates that that inflation fears might be overblown.<\/p>\n

The energy and currency markets have viewed today’s news as generally positive though, with oil rising<\/a>, though Nigerian unrest contributed to this, and the dollar falling<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Well, I’ve missed a point on jobless claim numbers, which came out today, and showed increasing initial jobless claims, from 605,000 to 608,000, still into what Atrios calls “holy crap” territory, but that continuing claims fell from 6.74 million to 6.69 million. I generally find continuing claims to be a better metric, but, as Susie …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1080,973,975,1135,1004,1200,1088,1089],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-191840","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-currency","category-economy","category-employment","category-energy","category-finance","category-inflation","category-real-estate","category-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191840"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=191840"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191840\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=191840"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=191840"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=191840"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}