{"id":191860,"date":"2009-06-15T22:16:00","date_gmt":"2009-06-16T03:16:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/06\/15\/economics-update-200\/"},"modified":"2009-06-15T22:16:00","modified_gmt":"2009-06-16T03:16:00","slug":"economics-update-200","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/06\/15\/economics-update-200\/","title":{"rendered":"Economics Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.newyorkfed.org\/survey\/empire\/Empire2009\/GBCchart_June09.gif\" style=\"margin: 0px 0px 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer;\" \/>Well, if you are looking for &#8220;green shoots&#8221;, the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2009\/06\/empire-state-manufacturing-conditions.html\">New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey is not one of them<\/a>, they got worse (see picture).<\/p>\n<p>Additionally, the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2009\/06\/nahb-builder-confidence-decreases.html\">NAHB Builder Confidence fell a bit in June<\/a>, from 16 to 15, with 50 being neutral, so that remains awful.<\/p>\n<p>When one considers that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/fitch-multifamily-retail-defaults-drive-us-cmbs-delinquencies-past-2?siteid=nbkh\">delinquencies on commercial mortgage backed securities broke 2%<\/a>, this is a state of mind that accurately reflects the reality out there.<\/p>\n<p>Still, another measure of consumer confidence, this one from the University of Michigan, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/consumer-sentiment-rises-to-69-in-june\" rose=\"\" to=\"\" 69=\"\" in=\"\" from=\"\" 7=\"\"><\/a>, which is marginally better, but still well below the 10 year average of 88.2.<\/p>\n<p>We also have two relatively well known business have filed for bankruptcy reorganization, <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2009\/06\/15\/news\/companies\/six_flags_bankruptcy\/index.htm?postversion=2009061506\">Six Flags amusement parks<\/a> and the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=20601110&amp;sid=ah2f97cEJagI\">Extended Stay hotel chain<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, in Ireland, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.irishtimes.com\/newspaper\/breaking\/2009\/0611\/breaking22.html\">deflation has hit an annual rate of -4.7%<\/a>, which is not surprising.  There are a lot fewer dollars (Euros) chasing goods there, now that their bubble has popped.<\/p>\n<p>Still, it appears that foreign investors are more confident about the future on a global level, as they have <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2009\/06\/15\/news\/economy\/foreign_purchases_securities.reut\/index.htm\">cut back on purchases of long term US securities<\/a>, as the flight to safety slowed\/reversed.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, we are starting to see some inflation from the recovery in oil prices, with <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/\/id\/31305340\"><\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/\/id\/31305340\">import prices rising 1.3%<\/a>, largely on oil, though they are down by 17.6% (!) year over year.<\/p>\n<p>This has <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2009\/06\/15\/news\/economy\/gas_California\/index.htm?postversion=2009061516\">driven the price of retail gasoline up again<\/a>, and are now up 63% for the year, though <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2009\/06\/15\/markets\/oil\/index.htm\">crude oil fell today<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2009\/06\/15\/markets\/dollar.reut\/index.htm\">dollar was up<\/a>, largely on statements by Russia that it should remain the world&#8217;s reserve currency.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Well, if you are looking for &#8220;green shoots&#8221;, the New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey is not one of them, they got worse (see picture). Additionally, the NAHB Builder Confidence fell a bit in June, from 16 to 15, with 50 being neutral, so that remains awful. When one considers that delinquencies on commercial &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1005,1080,973,1135,984,1004,1200,1088,1089],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-191860","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-business","category-currency","category-economy","category-energy","category-europe","category-finance","category-inflation","category-real-estate","category-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191860"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=191860"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191860\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=191860"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=191860"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=191860"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}