{"id":191990,"date":"2009-05-27T21:34:00","date_gmt":"2009-05-28T02:34:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/05\/27\/economics-update-212\/"},"modified":"2009-05-27T21:34:00","modified_gmt":"2009-05-28T02:34:00","slug":"economics-update-212","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/05\/27\/economics-update-212\/","title":{"rendered":"Economics Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>So, it looks like the ratings agencies are beginning to do their job.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, this is at <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">absolutely the worst possible time<\/span> for the economy, because it means that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=aY7QyIj5NUNE\">Standard &amp; Poor\u2019s is considering downgrading a large portion of the best quality commercial mortgage backed securities<\/a> (<span>CMBS<\/span>):<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"color: rgb(0, 0, 153);\"><p>As much as <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">90 percent<\/span> of so-called super senior commercial- mortgage backed bonds sold in 2007 may be affected as the ratings firm changes how it assesses the debt, New York-based S&amp;P said today in a report. About 25 percent of the bonds sold in 2005, and 60 percent of those sold in 2006 may be cut. <\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>(<span style=\"font-style: italic;\">emphasis mine<\/span>)<\/p>\n<p>This, among other news, is <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=aw90LMfkBOeU\">driving rates up on <span>CMBS<\/span><\/a>, though rising rates on treasuries, <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">despite the best efforts of the Fed to hold rates down<\/span> are a contributing factor.<\/p>\n<p>Basically, people believe that we will be seeing higher interest rates in the near future, which drives rates up, particularly longer term rates, which is why <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=aDoudpT9wy_I&amp;refer=home\">the spread between the 2-year and the 10-year treasury have hit a new record<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s why mortgage rates are on the rise, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/\/id\/30956670\">driving down new mortgage applications<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>In other banking news, the <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2009\/05\/27\/news\/companies\/fdic_profile\/index.htm?postversion=2009052711\"><span>FDIC&#8217;s<\/span> problem bank list is now more than 300<\/a>, the highest number in fifteen years.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile in <span>energy<\/span> and currency, <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2009\/05\/27\/markets\/oil\/\">oil is up<\/a> on Saudi statements that the world economy can &#8220;handle&#8221; $75-$80\/bbl oil, and the <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2009\/05\/27\/markets\/dollar.reut\/index.htm\">dollar rose on concerns about bad housing data<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>So, it looks like the ratings agencies are beginning to do their job. Of course, this is at absolutely the worst possible time for the economy, because it means that Standard &amp; Poor\u2019s is considering downgrading a large portion of the best quality commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS): As much as 90 percent of so-called &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[973,1004,1088,985],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-191990","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-finance","category-real-estate","category-regulation"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191990"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=191990"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191990\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=191990"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=191990"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=191990"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}