{"id":192133,"date":"2009-05-07T19:57:00","date_gmt":"2009-05-08T00:57:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/05\/07\/commercial-real-estate-crash-hitting\/"},"modified":"2009-05-07T19:57:00","modified_gmt":"2009-05-08T00:57:00","slug":"commercial-real-estate-crash-hitting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/05\/07\/commercial-real-estate-crash-hitting\/","title":{"rendered":"Commercial Real Estate Crash Hitting"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>With <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=aES8UegfUvkU\">commercial mortgage delinquencies hitting an 11-Year High<\/a>, (H\/T<a href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2009\/05\/commercial-mortgage-delinquencies.html\">Calculated Risk<\/a>) the records <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">only going back 11 years<\/span>, we are starting to see what might very well be a worse crash in commercial real estate than we saw in housing, because typically, CRE mortgages need to be refinanced every 5 years.<\/p>\n<p>Additionally, we have a report from Deutsche Ban suggesting that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/businessNews\/idUSTRE54666X20090507?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=businessNews\"><sup>2<\/sup>\/<sub>3<\/sub> of loans backed by mortgage backed securities (CMBS) will not be able to be financed if they come due between now and 2018<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>While CMBS are only about \u00bc of this market, it&#8217;s not unreasonable to assume that we could see similar numbers in the same range for other forms of financing, as the property remains under water.<\/p>\n<p>Even if that number is only 20-30% of outstanding commercial markets, we are looking at a death spiral that will make the housing bubble pop look tame.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With commercial mortgage delinquencies hitting an 11-Year High, (H\/TCalculated Risk) the records only going back 11 years, we are starting to see what might very well be a worse crash in commercial real estate than we saw in housing, because typically, CRE mortgages need to be refinanced every 5 years. Additionally, we have a report &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1004,1088],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-192133","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-finance","category-real-estate"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/192133"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=192133"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/192133\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=192133"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=192133"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=192133"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}