{"id":192639,"date":"2009-03-10T17:37:00","date_gmt":"2009-03-10T22:37:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/03\/10\/economics-update-264\/"},"modified":"2009-03-10T17:37:00","modified_gmt":"2009-03-10T22:37:00","slug":"economics-update-264","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/03\/10\/economics-update-264\/","title":{"rendered":"Economics Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The <a href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/story\/Hiring-plans-sink-lowest-level\/story.aspx?guid=%7B35DBA231-11CD-4C4E-BDF2-13F106F9E7A9%7D\">Manpower hiring survey has fallen to its lowest level in its history<\/a>, and the survey started in 1962.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, a survey of economists say that the <a href=\"http:\/\/news.yahoo.com\/s\/nm\/20090310\/bs_nm\/us_usa_economy_bluechip_1\">U.S. economy set should start to recover in the 2nd half of the 2009<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"color: rgb(0, 0, 153);\"><p>&#8220;<span>Consumer spending<\/span> and residential investment are expected to turn positive and begin boosting GDP growth in the third quarter of this year,&#8221; the newsletter Blue Chip <span>Economic Indicators<\/span> said, summarizing its survey of private economists.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I want what the economists are smoking, because we are seeing no signs of either right now.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/img4.imageshack.us\/img4\/1219\/aiau091chinacns20090310.gif\" style=\"margin: 0px 0px 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer;\" \/>The fact the even previously overheated China <a href=\"http:\/\/online.wsj.com\/article\/SB123665456823780181.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us\">saw deflation in January<\/a> indicates to me that this will be longer and deeper than they think.<\/p>\n<p>Additionally, while <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/businessNews\/idUSTRE5293VL20090310?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=businessNews\">wholesale inventories fell in January, wholesale sales fell faster<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/2009\/03\/10\/national-house-prices-drop-35-in-january-report\/\">house prices fell 3.5% in January<\/a>, according to the Integrated Asset Services index, indicating that the contraction is accelerating.<\/p>\n<p>There is also the fact that the meltdown of the US megabanks has gotten worse, with us regulators <a href=\"http:\/\/online.wsj.com\/article\/SB123664734657878827.html\">looking at more bailout money for Citi<\/a>, and the notification that the <a href=\"http:\/\/online.wsj.com\/article\/SB123664245169577701.html\">Federal Home Loan Bank of Seattle said it has fallen short of one of its capital requirements<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Note that the FHLBs are where the mortgages are being written right now, so this means that things are going pear shaped in the mortgage market.<\/p>\n<p>With all this going on, it&#8217;s no wonder that the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=20601110&amp;sid=aAj6OXMGhBSo\">3-month LIBOR spread is up<\/a>, indicating a tightening credit environment.<\/p>\n<p>Some good news, though it means short term pain, which is that the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/\/id\/29613713\">Securities and Exchange Commission remains committed to reality based accounting<\/a>, and so it will <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">not<\/span> abandon mark-to-market.<\/p>\n<p>We also have <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2009\/03\/10\/markets\/oil.reut\/index.htm\">oil rising<\/a> on reports of OPEC production cuts, and the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/id\/29604086?__source=RSS*tag*&amp;par=RSS\">dollar falling<\/a> on US bank worries.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Manpower hiring survey has fallen to its lowest level in its history, and the survey started in 1962. Meanwhile, a survey of economists say that the U.S. economy set should start to recover in the 2nd half of the 2009: &#8220;Consumer spending and residential investment are expected to turn positive and begin boosting GDP &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[973,975,1004,1088,1089,985],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-192639","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-employment","category-finance","category-real-estate","category-recession","category-regulation"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/192639"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=192639"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/192639\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=192639"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=192639"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=192639"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}