{"id":192733,"date":"2009-02-27T18:22:00","date_gmt":"2009-02-27T23:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/02\/27\/economics-update-271\/"},"modified":"2009-02-27T18:22:00","modified_gmt":"2009-02-27T23:22:00","slug":"economics-update-271","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/02\/27\/economics-update-271\/","title":{"rendered":"Economics Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Well, the revised GDP numbers are in for Q4 of 2008, and they are <a href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/story\/US-GDP-revised-decline-62\/story.aspx?guid=%7B616ECED3-C84C-4A44-98BC-56CB5911BE59%7D\">a horror-show<\/a>, with GDP declining 6.2%, when the initial numbers had been -3.8%.<\/p>\n<p>With numbers like this it&#8217;s no wonder that the FDIC is reporting that <a href=\"http:\/\/www2.fdic.gov\/qbp\/2008dec\/qbpall.html\">the banking industry posted an aggregate net loss for a quarter<\/a> for the first time since 1990.<\/p>\n<p>If we are expecting real estate to rebound any time soon and save us, I wouldn&#8217;t hold my breath with <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2009\/02\/26\/realestate\/26condo.html?partner=rss&amp;emc=rss&amp;pagewanted=all\">condo developers trying auctions to move properties<\/a>, and And <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2009\/03\/01\/realestate\/01walk.html\">apartment buyers walking away from deposits<\/a>&#8230;.<span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Six and seven figure deposits<\/span>&#8230;.in <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">Manhattan<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>I would also note that the consumer does not appear to be their either, with <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/\/id\/29427923\">the finally tally for the Consumer Confidence Index falling<\/a> to a 29 year low.<\/p>\n<p>With numbers like this, it&#8217;s no surprise that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/bondsNews\/idUSN2628683320090226\">S&amp;P is considering downgrading the ratings<\/a> on $140 billion of prime jumbo mortgage CDOs, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com\/non-prime-mortgage-originations-hit-17-year-low-in-2008\/\">non-prime mortgage origination hit a 17-year low<\/a> last year.<\/p>\n<p>Real estate, and hence banking, is in a sad enough condition that the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=20601110&amp;sid=av0GO8aN0oeo\">FDIC has instituted a temporary emergency rate hike<\/a> in order to bolster its reserves.<\/p>\n<p>More generally, we have The Institute for Supply Management&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=20601110&amp;sid=aEdlb.Px3d5Y\">Chicago Purchasers\u2019 Index showing continued contraction<\/a>.  It rose to 34.2 from 33.3, but anything under 50 means contraction, and the 30s are significant contraction.<\/p>\n<p>The fact that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/story\/GE-cut-dividend-10-cents\/story.aspx?guid=%7BD1065092-1F39-481C-8595-32461E11B31E%7D\">GE cut its dividend to 10 cents from 31 cents<\/a> indicates that no one is doing well here.<\/p>\n<p>The same is going on overseas, with <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=a1NA0ExzemLU&amp;refer=home\">most of eastern Europe in dire straits<\/a>, getting emergency loans totaling about $31 billion, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/\/id\/29417650\">Japanese factory output falling<\/a>, and new jobs drying up.<\/p>\n<p>The revised GDP figures drove both <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2009\/02\/27\/markets\/oil.reut\/index.htm\">oil<\/a> and the <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2009\/02\/27\/markets\/dollar.reut\/index.htm\">dollar<\/a> down.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Well, the revised GDP numbers are in for Q4 of 2008, and they are a horror-show, with GDP declining 6.2%, when the initial numbers had been -3.8%. With numbers like this it&#8217;s no wonder that the FDIC is reporting that the banking industry posted an aggregate net loss for a quarter for the first time &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[973,975,984,1004,1188,1088,1089],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-192733","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-employment","category-europe","category-finance","category-japan","category-real-estate","category-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/192733"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=192733"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/192733\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=192733"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=192733"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=192733"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}