{"id":193022,"date":"2009-01-27T18:28:00","date_gmt":"2009-01-27T23:28:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/01\/27\/my-gut-versus-one-of-the-experts-in-the-field\/"},"modified":"2009-01-27T18:28:00","modified_gmt":"2009-01-27T23:28:00","slug":"my-gut-versus-one-of-the-experts-in-the-field","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2009\/01\/27\/my-gut-versus-one-of-the-experts-in-the-field\/","title":{"rendered":"My Gut Versus One of the Experts in the Field"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Karl Case, co-creator of the Case-Shiller index, is says that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=20601110&amp;sid=aPHG5j9o577o\">he expects housing to bottom out by the end of this year<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>I disagree.  First, you always get overshoot when a bubble collapses, and there are too many shadow foreclosures out there, where banks have not listed the properties, or are delaying foreclosures because their hands\/balance sheets are full.<\/p>\n<p>If I had an investment decision on it, I&#8217;d probably go with Karl Case, but I don&#8217;t, so I&#8217;ll stick with my prediction.<\/p>\n<p>You may see a bottom in the worst hit places, like California, which is down 42% year over year (!), sooner than that, but a too much &#8220;wealth&#8221; has simply been destroyed for a recovery this year.<\/p>\n<p>I do not expect an uptick until sometime after 2012.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Karl Case, co-creator of the Case-Shiller index, is says that he expects housing to bottom out by the end of this year. I disagree. First, you always get overshoot when a bubble collapses, and there are too many shadow foreclosures out there, where banks have not listed the properties, or are delaying foreclosures because their &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1088],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-193022","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-real-estate"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/193022"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=193022"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/193022\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=193022"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=193022"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=193022"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}