{"id":193758,"date":"2008-11-19T18:21:00","date_gmt":"2008-11-19T23:21:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2008\/11\/19\/economics-update-339\/"},"modified":"2008-11-19T18:21:00","modified_gmt":"2008-11-19T23:21:00","slug":"economics-update-339","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2008\/11\/19\/economics-update-339\/","title":{"rendered":"Economics Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Well, it looks like the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/story\/us-consumer-prices-fall-1\/story.aspx?guid=%7B852F0774-0BBF-47F0-A207-BA54FDE9F85B%7D&amp;dist=msr_1\">deflationary trap may be here<\/a>, with the CPI down 1% last month, and core CPI falling 0.1%, the first drop since 1982.<\/p>\n<p>The fact that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=ayFpFXHa5bvU&amp;refer=home\">housing starts and requests for building permits are falling off<\/a> reinforces the idea that we are heading towards a major downturn.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, it&#8217;s not just residential real estate.  We are now seeing that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=a0GR3cE_UyEE&amp;refer=home\">mortgage backed securities for commercial properties are seeing increasing insurance costs and delinquencies<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>In the larger world of the credit crunch, <a href=\"http:\/\/calculatedrisk.blogspot.com\/2008\/11\/credit-crisis-indicators-no-progress_19.html\">Calculated Risk&#8217;s Credit Crisis Indicators<\/a> are largely unchanged.<\/p>\n<p>BTW, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/story\/story.aspx?guid=%7B33BE6C8A-9D49-4D2A-B01A-37EB3E0DC805%7D&amp;dist=LNQ\">S&amp;P has downgraded monoliner bond insurer Ambac again<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>In energy, <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2008\/11\/19\/markets\/oil\/\">oil fell again<\/a>, on high inventory reports.<\/p>\n<p>In currency, the <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2008\/11\/19\/markets\/dollar\/index.htm\">dollar fell in response to continued news of a recession<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s see&#8230;Anything else???  Oh&#8230;Yeah, the <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2008\/11\/19\/markets\/markets_newyork\/index.htm\">Dow closed below 8,000 for the first time in 5 years<\/a>, 7,997.28.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Well, it looks like the deflationary trap may be here, with the CPI down 1% last month, and core CPI falling 0.1%, the first drop since 1982. The fact that housing starts and requests for building permits are falling off reinforces the idea that we are heading towards a major downturn. Of course, it&#8217;s not &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[973,1004,1200,1088,1089],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-193758","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-finance","category-inflation","category-real-estate","category-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/193758"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=193758"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/193758\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=193758"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=193758"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=193758"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}