{"id":194005,"date":"2008-11-01T15:18:00","date_gmt":"2008-11-01T20:18:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2008\/11\/01\/economics-update-352\/"},"modified":"2008-11-01T15:18:00","modified_gmt":"2008-11-01T20:18:00","slug":"economics-update-352","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2008\/11\/01\/economics-update-352\/","title":{"rendered":"Economics Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I guess the news from the central banks is as good a place to start as any.<\/p>\n<p>It looks like the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=ahc66TMgnK6Y\">the Federal Reserve&#8217;s initiative to buy commercial paper is bearing fruit<\/a>, to the tune of $145.7 billion between October 27 and October 31&#8230;.Annualize it out, it&#8217;s about 7.6 <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">trillion<\/span> a year.<\/p>\n<p>I also must note that the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.iht.com\/articles\/2008\/10\/31\/business\/yen.php\">Bank of Japan cut rates for the first time in 7 years<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>It also looks like the ECB will be cutting rates at their next meeting, because <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/id\/27468893?__source=RSS*tag*&amp;par=RSS\">Euro Zone  inflation numbers were low<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m not sure that it&#8217;s going to help when <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/topNews\/idUSTRE49U41420081031?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=topNews\">consumer spending is falling<\/a>, by 0.3% in September.<\/p>\n<p>Remember, even though it seems a <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">very<\/span> long time ago, the Lehman collapse was on September 15, halfway through the month, so the October will likely be worse.<\/p>\n<p>In real estate, one of the leading indicators, the Architecture Billings Index, which presages construction by 9-12 months <a href=\"http:\/\/calculatedrisk.blogspot.com\/2008\/10\/architecture-billings-index-falls.html\">just dropped off a cliff<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>This ain&#8217;t no &#8216;V&#8217; shaped recession.<\/p>\n<p>In any case, the oncoming recession has <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/\/id\/27472660\">significantly lowered commodities prices in October<\/a>, even oil, which posted a record drop, though it was <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2008\/10\/31\/markets\/oil\/index.htm\">up yesterday to $67.81\/bbl<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/businessNews\/idUSTRE49U0F620081031?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=businessNews\">GMAC is looking at becoming a bank and restructuring extensively<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Finally some historical chart pr0n, graphs or recent market crashes:<br \/><a href=\"http:\/\/img233.imageshack.us\/img233\/2760\/sp500crashespl2.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/img233.imageshack.us\/img233\/2760\/sp500crashespl2.jpg\" width=\"500\" \/><\/a><br \/><b>VERY<\/b> scary image courtesy of <a href=\"http:\/\/calculatedrisk.blogspot.com\/2008\/10\/comparing-stock-market-crashes.html\">Calculated Risk<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Click image for full size graphic.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I guess the news from the central banks is as good a place to start as any. It looks like the the Federal Reserve&#8217;s initiative to buy commercial paper is bearing fruit, to the tune of $145.7 billion between October 27 and October 31&#8230;.Annualize it out, it&#8217;s about 7.6 trillion a year. I also must &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[973,1004,1200,1089],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-194005","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-finance","category-inflation","category-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/194005"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=194005"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/194005\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=194005"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=194005"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=194005"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}