{"id":194033,"date":"2008-10-30T17:20:00","date_gmt":"2008-10-30T22:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2008\/10\/30\/economics-update-353\/"},"modified":"2008-10-30T17:20:00","modified_gmt":"2008-10-30T22:20:00","slug":"economics-update-353","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2008\/10\/30\/economics-update-353\/","title":{"rendered":"Economics Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>First news is a question, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=aAewsi3edRGY&amp;refer=home\">can we please admit that we are in a recession<\/a>? Please?<\/p>\n<p>The economy contracted at an 0.3% annual rate last quarter, with a a 6.4% rate decline on purchases of non-durable goods, and a 3.1% rate decline on consumer spending.<\/p>\n<p>This is not just a &#8220;recession&#8221;. This is a big MoFo.<\/p>\n<p>There are predictions of a rate approaching 5% in the 4th quarter.<\/p>\n<p>In any case, credit remains tight, though there appears to be some loosening, see <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ritholtz.com\/blog\/2008\/10\/ted-spread-improves\/\">here<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/calculatedrisk.blogspot.com\/2008\/10\/libor-slowly-declines.html\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>We are also seeing <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2008\/10\/30\/news\/economy\/commercial_paper\/index.htm\">the first growth in commercial paper since the collapse of Lehman<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>However, we also just saw <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2008\/10\/30\/real_estate\/mortgage_rates\/index.htm\">30 year mortgage rates spiked by 40 basis points<\/a>, even though the Fed cut rates.<\/p>\n<p>This ain&#8217;t over, and the Japanese <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/id\/27450687?__source=RSS*tag*&amp;par=RSS\">have released details on a \u00a5 5 trillion stimulus package<\/a>, and the Germans have done so with a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/id\/27455744?__source=RSS*tag*&amp;par=RSS\">\u20ac30 billion stimulus package<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Still, the sounds of an oncoming train continue to <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2008\/10\/30\/markets\/oil.ap\/index.htm\">drive oil prices down<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=newsarchive&amp;sid=azJ_.yWLnwUQ\">dollar and Yen are both lower too<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>First news is a question, can we please admit that we are in a recession? Please? The economy contracted at an 0.3% annual rate last quarter, with a a 6.4% rate decline on purchases of non-durable goods, and a 3.1% rate decline on consumer spending. This is not just a &#8220;recession&#8221;. This is a big &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1080,973,1135,1004,1089],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-194033","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-currency","category-economy","category-energy","category-finance","category-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/194033"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=194033"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/194033\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=194033"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=194033"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=194033"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}