{"id":194063,"date":"2008-10-28T18:00:00","date_gmt":"2008-10-28T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2008\/10\/28\/economics-update-355\/"},"modified":"2008-10-28T18:00:00","modified_gmt":"2008-10-28T23:00:00","slug":"economics-update-355","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2008\/10\/28\/economics-update-355\/","title":{"rendered":"Economics Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>OK, the markets <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/businessNews\/idUSTRE49B3PW20081029?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=businessNews\">went wild on the expectation that the Fed will cut rates tomorrow<\/a>&#8230;.I&#8217;m not impressed, truth be told&#8230;.As I&#8217;ve said before, I think that the Fed is pushing on a string with interest rates.<\/p>\n<p>What is or more interest is the fact that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2008\/10\/fed-commercial-paper-program-raises.html\">the Federal Reserve&#8217;s intervention in the commercial paper market has appeared to raise rates<\/a>, rather than lower them.  From Bloomberg: <\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"color: rgb(0, 0, 153);\"><p>Yields on commercial paper rose as the Federal Reserve began buying the debt directly from companies, showing the central bank&#8217;s efforts to unfreeze short- term credit markets have yet to take hold.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I think that the Fed is looking at a monetary solutiuon, when the solution is government legislation and government spending.<\/p>\n<p>Still, this has not stopped <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/businessNews\/idUSTRE49R8LW20081029?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=businessNews\">GMAC from going in with the Fed&#8217;s commercial paper facility.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>BTW, the Fed is doing something else, currency swaps with other central banks, <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2008\/10\/28\/news\/economy\/new_zealand_swap.ap\/index.htm\">most recently the Central Bank of New Zealand<\/a>, though it has set up similar arrangements with Australia, Canada, and Japan too.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s supposed to help maintain liquidity, but I have no clue how this works.  Anyone want to explain this to me?<\/p>\n<p>What I do understand is the Federal Reserve going into the commercial paper market in the US.  Ge just borrowed<a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/news\/newsfeeds\/articles\/djf500\/200810272142DOWJONESDJONLINE000590_FORTUNE5.htm\"> $5 billion from the fed<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, even there, there is stuff that I don&#8217;t get, like why is the  <a href=\"http:\/\/market-ticker.denninger.net\/archives\/631-Oh-No....-Foreign-Debt-Bought-by-The-Fed.html\">Federal Reserve starting to buy <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">foreign<\/span> commercial paper<\/a>?<\/p>\n<p>In any related news, the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/\/id\/27424405\">Treasury is looking at extending the bailout to privately held banks<\/a>, though one wonders how they get a meaningful equity stake, as <del>Bush<\/del> Paulson and His Evil Minions<sup>\u2122<\/sup> had promised for any direct aid.<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m not sure if this is working, as is noted at <a href=\"http:\/\/calculatedrisk.blogspot.com\/2008\/10\/credit-crisis-indicators-mostly_28.html\">Calculated Risk<\/a>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>3 month treasuries are essentially unchanged.<\/li>\n<li>TED spread is marginally better.<\/li>\n<li>The two year swap spread is a bit worse.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Of course, that is just the world of banking.  In the real world, the perceptions are actually worse, with the Conference Board&#8217;s measure of Consumer Confidence <a href=\"http:\/\/www.thestreet.com\/story\/10444586\/1\/consumer-confidence-hits-a-record-low.html?puc=googlefi&amp;cm_ven=GOOGLEFI&amp;cm_cat=FREE&amp;cm_ite=NA\">hitting the lowest reading ever recorded<\/a>, dropping to 38 from September&#8217;s 61.4<br \/><a href=\"http:\/\/img407.imageshack.us\/img407\/495\/csaug08real7777794do8.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/img407.imageshack.us\/img407\/495\/csaug08real7777794do8.jpg\" style=\"margin: 10px 10px 10px 0px; float: left; cursor: pointer;\" width=\"420\" \/><\/a><br \/>This graph (click for full size), courtesy of <a href=\"http:\/\/calculatedrisk.blogspot.com\/2008\/10\/real-case-shiller-composite-indices.html\">Calculated Risk<\/a>, of the Case Shiller numbers and makes a good counterpoint to the most recent housing data, also from <a href=\"http:\/\/calculatedrisk.blogspot.com\/2008\/10\/s-case-shiller-house-prices-decline-in.html\">Calculated Risk<\/a>, and it is rather grim.<\/p>\n<p>Short form, house prices are retrenching in a major way, and I would expect <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">significant<\/span> overshoot on the way down:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Composite 20 index is off 20.3% from the peak.<\/li>\n<li>The Composite 10 is off 17.7% over the last year.<\/li>\n<li>The Composite 20 is off 16.6% over the last year.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In energy, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/businessNews\/idUSTRE49B3Y620081028?feedType=RSS&amp;feedName=businessNews\">oil has continued to fall rapidly<\/a>, and I think that I have <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">finally<\/span> come across a good reason for this, which I will cover in a separate post.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>OK, the markets went wild on the expectation that the Fed will cut rates tomorrow&#8230;.I&#8217;m not impressed, truth be told&#8230;.As I&#8217;ve said before, I think that the Fed is pushing on a string with interest rates. What is or more interest is the fact that the Federal Reserve&#8217;s intervention in the commercial paper market has &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[973,1135,1004,1088,985],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-194063","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-energy","category-finance","category-real-estate","category-regulation"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/194063"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=194063"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/194063\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=194063"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=194063"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=194063"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}