{"id":194604,"date":"2008-09-08T17:07:00","date_gmt":"2008-09-08T22:07:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2008\/09\/08\/economics-update-379\/"},"modified":"2008-09-08T17:07:00","modified_gmt":"2008-09-08T22:07:00","slug":"economics-update-379","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2008\/09\/08\/economics-update-379\/","title":{"rendered":"Economics Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Seeing as how the nationalization-in-everything-but-name of the GSEs has been covered elsewhere on the blog, it won&#8217;t be here.<\/p>\n<p>That being said, the response of the international markets, <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2008\/09\/08\/news\/economy\/dollar_euro.ap\/index.htm\">rising dollar<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2008\/09\/08\/markets\/oil\/\">oil prices falling despite a hurricane pointed at the gulf<\/a>, appear to be positive.<\/p>\n<p>It comes from the fact that while shareholders will get F$#@ed, the foreign national banks and sovereign wealth funds which bought Fannie and Freddie paper are getting bailed out.<\/p>\n<p>It also looks like the monoliner bond insurers are winners here too, at least <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2008\/09\/08\/news\/companies\/bond_insurers.ap\/index.htm\">that&#8217;s how their stocks reacted to the news<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>This does not mean that the housing crisis is over, or even that it has bottomed out, which is why <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/newsOne\/idUSNAT00434820080905\">foreclosures hit a record high<\/a> in Q2.<\/p>\n<p>Additionally with <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/id\/26558467\">the official unemployment rate spiking to a 5 year high<\/a>, the rest of the economy sucks wet farts from dead pigeons too.<\/p>\n<p>What&#8217;s more, as <a href=\"http:\/\/krugman.blogs.nytimes.com\/2008\/09\/05\/the-un-recession\/\">Krugman notes<\/a>  that the U6 numbers are positively grim.<\/p>\n<p>The common reported number is U3, while U6 is:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of all civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>And U6 is higher than it was in the worst part of the 2001 recession:<\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: right;\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/img505.imageshack.us\/img505\/7460\/whywewhinepa3.png\" \/><\/div>\n<p>It&#8217;s not just banking, real estate, or employment though; Paul Volker is saying that the current financial system, which relies on complex securitization, as opposed to conventional loans <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=auKCKTSSU7yE&amp;\">is very broken<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The best proof of this is that <a href=\"http:\/\/iht.com\/articles\/2008\/09\/05\/business\/05yuan.php\">the bank of China is suffering a liquidity crisis<\/a>, because its investments are illiquid.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Seeing as how the nationalization-in-everything-but-name of the GSEs has been covered elsewhere on the blog, it won&#8217;t be here. That being said, the response of the international markets, rising dollar and oil prices falling despite a hurricane pointed at the gulf, appear to be positive. It comes from the fact that while shareholders will get &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[973,975,1135,1004,985],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-194604","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-employment","category-energy","category-finance","category-regulation"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/194604"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=194604"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/194604\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=194604"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=194604"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=194604"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}