{"id":195972,"date":"2008-06-02T16:35:00","date_gmt":"2008-06-02T21:35:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2008\/06\/02\/economics-update-448\/"},"modified":"2008-06-02T16:35:00","modified_gmt":"2008-06-02T21:35:00","slug":"economics-update-448","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2008\/06\/02\/economics-update-448\/","title":{"rendered":"Economics Update"},"content":{"rendered":"

The current estimates for may have payrolls dropping by somewhere around 60,000<\/a>. This number is rather more indicative than the unemployment rate, since those who have given up are not counted for the latter.<\/p>\n

To my mind, the percentage of the population working is probably the best number, at least when compared to the BLS which increasingly appears to employ Tinkerbell as their chief statistician.<\/p>\n

It’s been a busy time for real estate. We have The Economist<\/span> noting that house prices are falling even faster than during the great depression<\/a>, which is worse<\/span> than it sounds, because we had deflation during the depression, which means that houses are falling even faster in real terms, see the pretty picture:
<\/p>\n

We are alsoseeing prices fall for houses above $5 million<\/a>, the NY Daily News is declaring New York to be a renters’ market<\/a>, and foreclosures in Boston 45% of all housing transactions are foreclosures<\/a>.<\/p>\n

What’s more, the popping of the real estate bubble is now now hitting property taxes<\/a>, as counties raise rates to account for falling property values and foreclosures.<\/p>\n

It’s no wonder that mortgage defaults are surging<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In energy, oil is still below the record, but oil increased to $128.25\/bbl<\/a>, though, for the first time in 25 days<\/span>, gas did not hit a new record.<\/p>\n

Gas didn’t fall either though, it stayed at Sunday’s level.<\/p>\n

The dollar has strengthened somewhat, because the markets are expecting a Fed rate hike<\/a>, which I doubt, given that the election is 6 months away.<\/p>\n

In the real economy, the ISM manufacturing index increased to 49.6<\/a>, the consensus was that it would fall to 48.0, but this is not good news, just less bad news, since any number under 50 is still a contraction.<\/p>\n

In banking, S&P have noticed that some of the major investment banks are using funny accounting on their assets<\/a>, and so they have cut the ratings or outlooks<\/a> on Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citi, and JPMorgan Chase.<\/p>\n

It’s no wonder bank losses are expanding<\/a>, and you have the Financial Times<\/span> wondering how much bank failures are likely to increase<\/a> as more debt goes bad.<\/p>\n

On the good news side of the equation, it appears that Wachovia has had a case of temporary sanity, and they fired CEO Kennedy Thompson<\/a> after hemorrhaging profits and stock price over the last year.<\/p>\n

Hopefully, there will be no golden parachute for him.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The current estimates for may have payrolls dropping by somewhere around 60,000. This number is rather more indicative than the unemployment rate, since those who have given up are not counted for the latter. To my mind, the percentage of the population working is probably the best number, at least when compared to the BLS …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[973,975,1135,1004,1088],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-195972","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-employment","category-energy","category-finance","category-real-estate"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/195972"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=195972"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/195972\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=195972"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=195972"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=195972"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}