{"id":196014,"date":"2008-05-29T16:46:00","date_gmt":"2008-05-29T21:46:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2008\/05\/29\/economics-update-450\/"},"modified":"2008-05-29T16:46:00","modified_gmt":"2008-05-29T21:46:00","slug":"economics-update-450","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2008\/05\/29\/economics-update-450\/","title":{"rendered":"Economics Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The economy <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2008\/05\/29\/news\/economy\/gdp_revision\/index.htm?postversion=2008052911\">grew more than previously estimated in Q1 of 2008<\/a>, at an 0.9% annual rate adjusted for CPI, as opposed to the previously reported 0.6%.  Note that this <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">still<\/span> a contraction, as inflation, even the official bogus CPI understates true inflation by well over 1%.<\/p>\n<p>Not surprisingly, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=aGtAszTIwDAE&amp;refer=home\">treasuries fell<\/a>, as the revised numbers show more potential for inflation.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/ap.google.com\/article\/ALeqM5jXgIsKXJlO8AhG79r_OKcV6WhHKQD90VAGBO0\">New jobless claims rose<\/a> +4000 to 372,000, just above the estimate of 370,000, which, to me at least, reinforces my thoughts on the trajectory of the economy.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2008\/05\/29\/markets\/oil_eia\/index.htm?postversion=2008052912\">Crude oil prices fell to $126.62\/bbl<\/a>, but <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2008\/05\/29\/news\/economy\/gas_prices\/index.htm?postversion=2008052906\">retail gasoline hit another record<\/a>.  That&#8217;s 22 straight days.<\/p>\n<p>The FDIC issues <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2008\/05\/29\/news\/economy\/fdic_report\/index.htm?postversion=2008052911\">a very grim report on banks<\/a>, with bank profits falling by more than 50% and &#8220;problem&#8221; banks on the rise.<\/p>\n<p>This is, of course, largely tied into the real estate bubble, which <a href=\"http:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/news\/story\/may-uk-house-prices-see\/story.aspx?guid=%7B725A7C1F-A906-46AD-AAAC-03451E9D3EAD%7D\">appears to be popping in Britain<\/a> (yet again), with prices falling 2.5% over the last month, and 4.7% year over year.<\/p>\n<p>In the US, I think that those people expecting a turn around will be disappointed, as <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2008\/05\/29\/real_estate\/0529_mortgage\/index.htm\">30 year fixed mortgage just topped 6%<\/a>, with indications of more to come, particularly since selling the loans will become harder, as <a href=\"http:\/\/www.housingwire.com\/2008\/05\/28\/sp-lowers-the-boom-on-1326-alt-a-rmbs-classes\/\">S&amp;P just lowered the ratings on 1,326 Alt-A residential mortgage back securities<\/a> (RMBS).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The economy grew more than previously estimated in Q1 of 2008, at an 0.9% annual rate adjusted for CPI, as opposed to the previously reported 0.6%. Note that this still a contraction, as inflation, even the official bogus CPI understates true inflation by well over 1%. Not surprisingly, treasuries fell, as the revised numbers show &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[973,975,1200,1089],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-196014","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-employment","category-inflation","category-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/196014"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=196014"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/196014\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=196014"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=196014"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=196014"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}