{"id":196223,"date":"2008-05-15T16:45:00","date_gmt":"2008-05-15T21:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2008\/05\/15\/economics-update-458\/"},"modified":"2008-05-15T16:45:00","modified_gmt":"2008-05-15T21:45:00","slug":"economics-update-458","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2008\/05\/15\/economics-update-458\/","title":{"rendered":"Economics Update"},"content":{"rendered":"

I guess for those of us in the US, the big 3 are employment, energy prices, and real estate. So, going in that order, we have:
nitial jobless claims rising to 371,000<\/a> last week, though as I always state, this is a noisy number, and you need a few weeks, or better yet months to extract real meaning, but, quoting the article, “The trend in claims is still upwards and we expect new highs over the next few months.”<\/p>\n

Matt Trivisonno has the withholding tax numbers<\/a>, you know the social security taxes that employers take out of wages below about $104K, and they are way down too.<\/p>\n

Here are the pretty pictures:<\/p>\n


Trending Down on a daily basis<\/p>\n


And on a quarterly basis<\/p>\n


And on a yearly basis.<\/div>\n

As to why these numbers fell? Because no one is making anything in the US in April<\/a>. Industrial production fell -0.7% in the US. The consensus estimate was -0.3% down, and March output was ajusted to +0.2%, down from +0.3%. Not good.<\/p>\n

In energy, Crude fell below $122\/bbl<\/a>, which is good, but Gas hit a new record, $3.776 a gallon<\/a>, the 8th record in 8 days.<\/p>\n

In real estate, we have the inevitable article calling the light at the end of the tunnel<\/a>, when it is more likely an oncoming train, in Orlando, Florids, one of the worst hit areas. Inventory fell slightly, and sales are up a bit (0.2%), and the rate of decline<\/span> of existing home sales is a bit better.<\/p>\n

Me, I’ll go with National Association of Home Builders\/Wells Fargo monthly index<\/a>, which fell again. The home builders are in the business.<\/p>\n

I would also note that even with the Fed rate cuts, mortgage rates fall seem to be pretty stubborn about staying above the 6.0% line<\/a>, so there won’t be any help for the market there.<\/p>\n

Europe, on the other hand, appears to be doing fairly well, with GDP increasing 0.7% across the Euro Zone in the first quarter<\/a>, led by a sizzling, for the developed world anyway, 1.5% increase for Germany.<\/p>\n

This makes it far less likely that the ECB will cut rates. Actually it makes it more likely that the ECB will raise rates, and as a result, the US dollar is down today<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I guess for those of us in the US, the big 3 are employment, energy prices, and real estate. So, going in that order, we have:nitial jobless claims rising to 371,000 last week, though as I always state, this is a noisy number, and you need a few weeks, or better yet months to extract …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[973,975,1135,1004,1221,1088],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-196223","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-employment","category-energy","category-finance","category-manufacturing","category-real-estate"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/196223"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=196223"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/196223\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=196223"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=196223"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=196223"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}