{"id":196660,"date":"2008-04-03T18:46:00","date_gmt":"2008-04-03T23:46:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2008\/04\/03\/economics-update-487\/"},"modified":"2008-04-03T18:46:00","modified_gmt":"2008-04-03T23:46:00","slug":"economics-update-487","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2008\/04\/03\/economics-update-487\/","title":{"rendered":"Economics Update"},"content":{"rendered":"

First, we have a new peak in Jobless claims, 407,000, the highest level since Katrina hit New Orleans (here<\/a> and here<\/a>). Note, as always, that weekly jobless numbers are just a snap shot of a single week, and as such, there is a lot of noise, but this did not stop the dollar from retreating in response<\/a>.<\/p>\n

That being said, the fact that the IMF is predicting a global slowdown<\/a> ain’t a good sign either.<\/p>\n

Given that we have a consumer driven economy, the fact that people are falling behind on their debts at the highest rate in 15 years<\/a> is a good indicator that we are already<\/span> in a recession.<\/p>\n

In energy, was down a buck, and gasoline hit a new record<\/a>. Assuming that we are not at peak oil, there might be some moderation as the economy cools.<\/p>\n

The markets are seeing a cooling economy too, driving Treasuries higher<\/a>, because investors are looking for safe havens.<\/p>\n

In real estate house prices fell in 21 metro areas<\/a>, and foreclosures rose to record levels. Same old same old.<\/p>\n

Finally, I’m beginning to feel like Keith Olbermann and Bill O’Reilly. I can’t make through a week without some insurer disaster intruding. In this case, it’s Triad Guaranty Inc.<\/a>, which is considering, “a plan to stop writing new business”, called a “run-off” in the insurance. Note that it’s business is mortgage insurance<\/span>, as opposed to monoliner bond insurance. <\/p>\n

Too many people defaulting on mortgages.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

First, we have a new peak in Jobless claims, 407,000, the highest level since Katrina hit New Orleans (here and here). Note, as always, that weekly jobless numbers are just a snap shot of a single week, and as such, there is a lot of noise, but this did not stop the dollar from retreating …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1080,973,975,1135,1004,1045],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-196660","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-currency","category-economy","category-employment","category-energy","category-finance","category-insurance"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/196660"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=196660"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/196660\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=196660"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=196660"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=196660"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}