{"id":196700,"date":"2008-04-01T16:53:00","date_gmt":"2008-04-01T21:53:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2008\/04\/01\/economics-update-489\/"},"modified":"2008-04-01T16:53:00","modified_gmt":"2008-04-01T21:53:00","slug":"economics-update-489","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2008\/04\/01\/economics-update-489\/","title":{"rendered":"Economics Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>First, let me complain, yet again, about the nature of financial reporting.  They are neck deep in dung, but they continue to look for a pony.<\/p>\n<p>Cases in pointL<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2008\/04\/01\/news\/economy\/ism_manufacturing\/index.htm?postversion=2008040111\">the Institute for Supply Management&#8217;s (ISM) manufacturing index rose to 48.6 from 48.3 in February<\/a>, which while higher than the 47.5 anticipated is <span style=\"font-weight:bold;\">still a contraction<\/span>.  Any number below 50 is a contraction.  The index is a derivative (the calculus type, not the financial type), with 50 being zero.  48.6 is still a trend down, and this should be the lede.<\/p>\n<p>Then we have <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2008\/04\/01\/news\/economy\/construction_spending\/index.htm?postversion=2008040111\">construction spending &#8220;falling less than expected<\/a>&#8220;.  Again, construction spending <span style=\"font-weight:bold;\">fell<\/span>, and while the &#8220;consensus&#8221; was 0.9%, and it fell 0.3%, this <span style=\"font-weight:bold;\">isn&#8217;t<\/span> news, unless you tell us who, or why the consensus was that number.<\/p>\n<p>Grrrrr.<\/p>\n<p>On the &#8220;economic news for the rest of us&#8221; front, we have <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2008\/04\/01\/news\/companies\/banking_jobs.ap\/index.htm?postversion=2008040107\">predictions that 200,000 jobs will be eliminated in the banking sector<\/a>, and the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2008\/03\/31\/us\/31foodstamps.html?_r=1&amp;hp&amp;oref=slogin\">number of food stamp recipients has gone through the roof<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>BTW, if you are wondering if the real estate collapse is just a locak phemenon, the answer is no.  We are now seeing <a href=\"http:\/\/online.wsj.com\/article\/SB120646647636062803.html?mod=googlenews_wsj\">the beginnings of a real estate collapse in china<\/a>, and the housing crunch has now <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ft.com\/cms\/s\/0\/ca4ccbbe-ff49-11dc-b556-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1\">moved to the Hamptons<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Shanghai and the Hamptons.  When you look at the range covered, there ain&#8217;t much left outside of this.<\/p>\n<p>In the world of currency, it appears that the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=aXwOQwX7_880&amp;refer=home\">dollar has had the biggest quarterly loss<\/a> since Q4 2004.  The ECB is concerned with inflation, and quite honestly is not experiencing the same sort of meltdown that the US is, so it&#8217;s holding rates steady, which strengthens the Euro.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, we have banks writing down billions of dollars (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2008\/04\/02\/business\/worldbusiness\/02ubs.html?em&amp;ex=1207195200&amp;en=c96f19a5bf26591f&amp;ei=5087%0A\">here<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/2008\/04\/01\/news\/companies\/banks_liquidity.ap\/index.htm?postversion=2008040111\">here<\/a>) in various bad investments.  The markets rewarded them today, but I think that this will get much worse before it gets any better.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>First, let me complain, yet again, about the nature of financial reporting. They are neck deep in dung, but they continue to look for a pony. Cases in pointL The the Institute for Supply Management&#8217;s (ISM) manufacturing index rose to 48.6 from 48.3 in February, which while higher than the 47.5 anticipated is still a &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1004,974,1088,1086],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-196700","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-finance","category-hack-journalism","category-real-estate","category-social-safety-net"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/196700"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=196700"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/196700\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=196700"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=196700"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=196700"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}