{"id":196952,"date":"2008-03-12T05:11:00","date_gmt":"2008-03-12T10:11:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2008\/03\/12\/merrill-lynch-bear-says-this-will-be-ugly\/"},"modified":"2008-03-12T05:11:00","modified_gmt":"2008-03-12T10:11:00","slug":"merrill-lynch-bear-says-this-will-be-ugly","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2008\/03\/12\/merrill-lynch-bear-says-this-will-be-ugly\/","title":{"rendered":"Merrill Lynch Bear Says this Will be Ugly"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A prominent bear, Merril Lynch economist David Rosenberg, is saying that <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.wsj.com\/economics\/2008\/03\/11\/merrill-lynch-recession-to-be-worst-since-1970s\/\">will be the worst one since the 1970s<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>I think that it will be worse, because we are in a debtor economy, and  bills will be coming due sooner, rather than later.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, I think that some of the indicators may show it to be more profound than that of the 1930s.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s why:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>In the 1930s, we were a net exporter of oil, now we are a net importer of oil.<\/li>\n<li>In the 1930s, the rest of the industrialized world was still suffering from the shocks of WWI, which had left the US largely unscathed.<\/li>\n<li>The US was running a trade surplus.<\/li>\n<li>The Federal government was running a budget surplus.<\/li>\n<li>The amount of leverage and risk are far higher now than in 1930.<\/li>\n<li>The US industrial base has been decimated over the past 35 years.<\/li>\n<li>Consumer savings is non-existent.<\/li>\n<li>We have crushing defense expenditures.<\/li>\n<li>The dollar is overvalued, meaning that we will be experiencing a foreign exchange driven inflation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Note, however, that but I&#8217;m an engineer, not an economist, dammit<sup>*<\/sup>!<\/p>\n<p><sup>*<\/sup><span style=\"font-size:85%;\">I <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: bold;font-size:85%;\" >love it<\/span><span style=\"font-size:85%;\"> when I get to go all Doctor McCoy!!!<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A prominent bear, Merril Lynch economist David Rosenberg, is saying that will be the worst one since the 1970s. I think that it will be worse, because we are in a debtor economy, and bills will be coming due sooner, rather than later. In fact, I think that some of the indicators may show it &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1080,973,1088,1089],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-196952","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-currency","category-economy","category-real-estate","category-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/196952"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=196952"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/196952\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=196952"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=196952"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=196952"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}