{"id":197842,"date":"2008-01-08T00:07:00","date_gmt":"2008-01-08T05:07:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2008\/01\/08\/my-prediction-on-new-hampshire\/"},"modified":"2008-01-08T00:07:00","modified_gmt":"2008-01-08T05:07:00","slug":"my-prediction-on-new-hampshire","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/2008\/01\/08\/my-prediction-on-new-hampshire\/","title":{"rendered":"My Prediction on New Hampshire"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Well, really I have only one, that Huckabee will do a lot better than the polling trend of 12% or so.<\/p>\n<p>If you look at things like <a href=\"http:\/\/www.desmoinesregister.com\/apps\/pbcs.dll\/article?AID=\/20080107\/NEWS\/80107048\/-1\/\">this report of large crowds for him<\/a>, and the statements of the Republican establishment and the Washington punditocracy<sup>*<\/sup> to the effect that Huckabee supporters are mouth breathing morons, which would tend to have people <span style=\"font-weight: bold;\">not<\/span> telling pollsters that they lean his way.<\/p>\n<p>Additionally, independent voters are more likely to vote in the Democratic primary, simply because they believe that the next president will be a Democrat, which leaves a higher proportion of hard core conservatives voting.<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m calling for 17+% for Huckabee.  (A clarification, I&#8217;m not calling a win, just that he breaks 17%)<\/p>\n<p><sup>*<\/sup><span style=\"font-size:85%;\">Which might be better described as a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.answers.com\/topic\/kakistocracy\">Kakistocracy<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Well, really I have only one, that Huckabee will do a lot better than the polling trend of 12% or so. If you look at things like this report of large crowds for him, and the statements of the Republican establishment and the Washington punditocracy* to the effect that Huckabee supporters are mouth breathing morons, &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1000,977],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-197842","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-elections","category-presidential-campaign"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/197842"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=197842"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/197842\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=197842"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=197842"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.panix.com\/~msaroff\/40years\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=197842"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}